Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain
The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occ...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0459b933a9c6437f975e3355603233db 2023-05-15T17:35:08+02:00 Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain Denis A. Demidko Svetlana M. Sultson Pavel V. Mikhaylov Sergey V. Verkhovets 2021-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 https://doaj.org/article/0459b933a9c6437f975e3355603233db EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/15 https://doaj.org/toc/1999-4907 doi:10.3390/f13010015 1999-4907 https://doaj.org/article/0459b933a9c6437f975e3355603233db Forests, Vol 13, Iss 15, p 15 (2021) Bupalus piniaria Scots pine outbreaks prognosis weather climate oscillations Plant ecology QK900-989 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 2022-12-30T19:58:34Z The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Forests 13 1 15 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Bupalus piniaria Scots pine outbreaks prognosis weather climate oscillations Plant ecology QK900-989 |
spellingShingle |
Bupalus piniaria Scots pine outbreaks prognosis weather climate oscillations Plant ecology QK900-989 Denis A. Demidko Svetlana M. Sultson Pavel V. Mikhaylov Sergey V. Verkhovets Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain |
topic_facet |
Bupalus piniaria Scots pine outbreaks prognosis weather climate oscillations Plant ecology QK900-989 |
description |
The pine looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) is one of the most common pests feeding on the Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L. Pine looper outbreaks show a feature of periodicity and have significant ecological and economic impacts. Climate and weather factors play an important role in pine looper outbreak occurrence. We tried to determine what weather conditions precede B. piniaria outbreaks in the southeast of the West Siberian Plain and what climate oscillations cause them. Due to the insufficient duration and incompleteness of documented observations on outbreaks, we used the history of pine looper outbreaks reconstructed using dendrochronological data. Using logistic regression, we found that the factor influencing an outbreak the most is the weather four years before it. A combination of warm spring, dry summer, and cool autumn triggers population growth. Summer weather two years before an outbreak is also critical: humidity higher than the average annual value in summer is favorable for the pine looper. The logistic regression model predicted six out of seven outbreaks that occurred during the period for which weather data are available. We discovered a link between outbreaks and climatic oscillations (mainly for the North Atlantic oscillation, Pacific/North America index, East Atlantic/Western Russia, West Pacific, and Scandinavian patterns). However, outbreak predictions based on the teleconnection patterns turned out to be unreliable. We believe that the complexity of the interaction between large-scale atmospheric processes makes the direct influence of individual oscillations on weather conditions relatively small. Furthermore, climate changes in recent decades modulated atmospheric processes changing the pattern predicting pine looper outbreaks: Autumn became warmer four years before an outbreak, and summer two years before became drier. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Denis A. Demidko Svetlana M. Sultson Pavel V. Mikhaylov Sergey V. Verkhovets |
author_facet |
Denis A. Demidko Svetlana M. Sultson Pavel V. Mikhaylov Sergey V. Verkhovets |
author_sort |
Denis A. Demidko |
title |
Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain |
title_short |
Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain |
title_full |
Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain |
title_fullStr |
Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of Weather Conditions and Climate Oscillations on the Pine Looper Bupalus piniaria (L.) Outbreaks in the Forest-Steppe of the West Siberian Plain |
title_sort |
influence of weather conditions and climate oscillations on the pine looper bupalus piniaria (l.) outbreaks in the forest-steppe of the west siberian plain |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 https://doaj.org/article/0459b933a9c6437f975e3355603233db |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Forests, Vol 13, Iss 15, p 15 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/15 https://doaj.org/toc/1999-4907 doi:10.3390/f13010015 1999-4907 https://doaj.org/article/0459b933a9c6437f975e3355603233db |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/f13010015 |
container_title |
Forests |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
15 |
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1766134195088785408 |