RECONSTRUCTION OF CHANGES IN STRATOSPHERIC OZONE IN THE TAIGA FORESTS BASED OF THE SINGULAR SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

• Published in: Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University Geo Assets Engineering
• Main Authors: Vladimir V. Zuev, Svetlana L. Bondarenko, Irina G. Ustinova
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Tomsk Polytechnic University 2022
• Subjects: ultraviolet b radiation; air temperature; amount of precipitation; wood density; annual rings; Engineering geology. Rock mechanics. Soil mechanics. Underground construction; TA703-712; taiga
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.18799/24131830/2022/3/3461; https://doaj.org/article/0385869656084aa4876f8cc087b6b21c

The relevance. The problem of reducing the level of stratospheric ozone and the interest in its past changes are associated with the increase in the dose of ultraviolet radiation in the short-wave range reaching the Earth's surface. Reconstruction and prediction of long-period fluctuations of the studied parameters can be carried out using the method of multiple regression according to the density of annual growth rings of conifers. In order to expand the experimental data base, exploratory work is being carried out to measure new characteristics of annual growth rings, as well as the mathematical apparatus of data preprocessing techniques is being refined, the connections of bioindicators with atmospheric parameters are being analyzed and new models of their prediction are being developed. Reconstruction of historical changes in atmospheric characteristics can be considered in the context of the prospect of artificial restoration of forest resources. The aim of the research is to discuss a technique for reconstructing the total ozone content based on a multicomponent singular spectral model of the response of conifers annual growth rings. Objects. During the growing season, trees form a woody structure of annual growth rings with the properties of a composite material. Each of the components of the annual growth rings such as a carbon-containing matrix, water and carbon dioxide contains responses to changes in environmental conditions. On the basis of a multicomponent model, the total responses of annual rings obtained using the Caterpillar SSA 3.40 software can be used to reconstruct changes in the total ozone content in zones with optimal coniferous growth conditions, as opposed to zones with dominance of the temperature factor. Methods: dendrochronological method; singular spectral analysis; econometric methods of time series analysis; data mining; simulation modeling. Results. The reliability of the model of responses of coniferous annual growth rings to changes in atmospheric parameters is confirmed by a ...