Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate
Abstract The effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal‐mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:03433c3c1c3a4c7091f0db630d7dd713 2024-09-15T17:53:46+00:00 Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate Katharina Hartmuth Lukas Papritz Maxi Boettcher Heini Wernli 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102349 https://doaj.org/article/03433c3c1c3a4c7091f0db630d7dd713 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102349 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL102349 https://doaj.org/article/03433c3c1c3a4c7091f0db630d7dd713 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102349 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract The effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal‐mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and extremes, using large‐ensemble climate model data with a representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing scenario for historical (S2000) and end‐of‐century projections (S2100). Our results reveal regionally and seasonally dependent changes in Arctic interannual temperature and precipitation variability that are strongly linked to sea‐ice loss. We show a doubling in precipitation variability over the Arctic Ocean and a significant reduction in temperature variability in the Barents Sea. Extremely warm seasons in S2000 rank among the coldest seasons or become unrealistic in S2100. We further show the key role of large‐scale weather systems for shaping seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic which persists under climate warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 50 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Katharina Hartmuth Lukas Papritz Maxi Boettcher Heini Wernli Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
topic_facet |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract The effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal‐mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and extremes, using large‐ensemble climate model data with a representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing scenario for historical (S2000) and end‐of‐century projections (S2100). Our results reveal regionally and seasonally dependent changes in Arctic interannual temperature and precipitation variability that are strongly linked to sea‐ice loss. We show a doubling in precipitation variability over the Arctic Ocean and a significant reduction in temperature variability in the Barents Sea. Extremely warm seasons in S2000 rank among the coldest seasons or become unrealistic in S2100. We further show the key role of large‐scale weather systems for shaping seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic which persists under climate warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Katharina Hartmuth Lukas Papritz Maxi Boettcher Heini Wernli |
author_facet |
Katharina Hartmuth Lukas Papritz Maxi Boettcher Heini Wernli |
author_sort |
Katharina Hartmuth |
title |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_short |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_full |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate |
title_sort |
arctic seasonal variability and extremes, and the role of weather systems in a changing climate |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102349 https://doaj.org/article/03433c3c1c3a4c7091f0db630d7dd713 |
genre |
Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 8, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102349 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL102349 https://doaj.org/article/03433c3c1c3a4c7091f0db630d7dd713 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102349 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
8 |
_version_ |
1810429829966725120 |