Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies
Abstract Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f 2023-05-15T15:13:11+02:00 Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies O'Brien Megan E Singh Inder Cohen Justin M 2008-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f EN eng BMC http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f Malaria Journal, Vol 7, Iss 1, p 200 (2008) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2008 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 2022-12-31T01:44:19Z Abstract Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. Methods Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. Results Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. Conclusion This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 7 1 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 O'Brien Megan E Singh Inder Cohen Justin M Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. Methods Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. Results Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. Conclusion This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O'Brien Megan E Singh Inder Cohen Justin M |
author_facet |
O'Brien Megan E Singh Inder Cohen Justin M |
author_sort |
O'Brien Megan E |
title |
Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
title_short |
Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
title_full |
Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
title_fullStr |
Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
title_sort |
predicting global fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 7, Iss 1, p 200 (2008) |
op_relation |
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/7/1/200 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/033093d5f6e14700a662d4664e99621f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-7-200 |
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Malaria Journal |
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7 |
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1 |
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1766343773378314240 |