Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps
Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale , a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex ( P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual s...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:02af67d24c1e46e993e756a0255f0ccc 2023-05-15T15:10:32+02:00 Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 https://doaj.org/article/02af67d24c1e46e993e756a0255f0ccc EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/12/9/346 https://doaj.org/toc/1424-2818 doi:10.3390/d12090346 1424-2818 https://doaj.org/article/02af67d24c1e46e993e756a0255f0ccc Diversity, Vol 12, Iss 346, p 346 (2020) arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr Biology (General) QH301-705.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 2022-12-30T20:44:38Z Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale , a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex ( P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale , and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale , and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Diversity 12 9 346 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
spellingShingle |
arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
topic_facet |
arctic-alpine flora climate change extinction risk microrefugia narrow endemism Papaver alpinum aggr Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
description |
Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale , a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex ( P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale , and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale , and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski |
author_facet |
Yann Fragnière Loïc Pittet Benoît Clément Sébastien Bétrisey Emanuel Gerber Michał Ronikier Christian Parisod Gregor Kozlowski |
author_sort |
Yann Fragnière |
title |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_short |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_full |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_fullStr |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps |
title_sort |
climate change and alpine screes: no future for glacial relict papaver occidentale (papaveraceae) in western prealps |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 https://doaj.org/article/02af67d24c1e46e993e756a0255f0ccc |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming |
op_source |
Diversity, Vol 12, Iss 346, p 346 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/12/9/346 https://doaj.org/toc/1424-2818 doi:10.3390/d12090346 1424-2818 https://doaj.org/article/02af67d24c1e46e993e756a0255f0ccc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/d12090346 |
container_title |
Diversity |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
346 |
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1766341544024997888 |