Presentation and evaluation of the Arctic sea ice forecasting system neXtSIM-F

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: T. Williams, A. Korosov, P. Rampal, E. Ólason
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2021
• Subjects: Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Geology; QE1-996.5; Arctic; Bingham; Greenland; Greenland Sea; Sea ice; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3207-2021; https://doaj.org/article/01cba34c166f447d8e0082e9cb5f7c89

The neXtSIM-F (neXtSIM forecast) forecasting system consists of a stand-alone sea ice model, neXtSIM (neXt-generation Sea Ice Model), forced by the TOPAZ ocean forecast and the ECMWF atmospheric forecast, combined with daily data assimilation of sea ice concentration. It uses the novel brittle Bingham–Maxwell (BBM) sea ice rheology, making it the first forecast based on a continuum model not to use the viscous–plastic (VP) rheology. It was tested in the Arctic for the time period November 2018–June 2020 and was found to perform well, although there are some shortcomings. Despite drift not being assimilated in our system, the sea ice drift is good throughout the year, being relatively unbiased, even for longer lead times like 5 d. The RMSE in speed and the total RMSE are also good for the first 3 or so days, although they both increase steadily with lead time. The thickness distribution is relatively good, although there are some regions that experience excessive thickening with negative implications for the summertime sea ice extent, particularly in the Greenland Sea. The neXtSIM-F forecasting system assimilates OSI SAF sea ice concentration products (both SSMIS and AMSR2) by modifying the initial conditions daily and adding a compensating heat flux to prevent removed ice growing back too quickly. The assimilation greatly improves the sea ice extent for the forecast duration.