Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH _4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 perma...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://doaj.org/article/01108997f4c14a3cb2c3d4e1b078268f |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:01108997f4c14a3cb2c3d4e1b078268f 2023-09-05T13:17:27+02:00 Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment Sayedeh Sara Sayedi Benjamin W Abbott Brett F Thornton Jennifer M Frederick Jorien E Vonk Paul Overduin Christina Schädel Edward A G Schuur Annie Bourbonnais Nikita Demidov Anatoly Gavrilov Shengping He Gustaf Hugelius Martin Jakobsson Miriam C Jones DongJoo Joung Gleb Kraev Robie W Macdonald A David McGuire Cuicui Mu Matt O’Regan Kathryn M Schreiner Christian Stranne Elena Pizhankova Alexander Vasiliev Sebastian Westermann Jay P Zarnetske Tingjun Zhang Mehran Ghandehari Sarah Baeumler Brian C Brown Rebecca J Frei 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://doaj.org/article/01108997f4c14a3cb2c3d4e1b078268f EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/01108997f4c14a3cb2c3d4e1b078268f Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 12, p 124075 (2020) subsea permafrost carbon stocks climate change expert assessment Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 2023-08-13T00:37:11Z The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH _4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH _4 . Current fluxes of CH _4 and carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr ^−1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO _2 -equivalent (CO _2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO _2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Environmental Research Letters 15 12 124075 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
subsea permafrost carbon stocks climate change expert assessment Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
subsea permafrost carbon stocks climate change expert assessment Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Sayedeh Sara Sayedi Benjamin W Abbott Brett F Thornton Jennifer M Frederick Jorien E Vonk Paul Overduin Christina Schädel Edward A G Schuur Annie Bourbonnais Nikita Demidov Anatoly Gavrilov Shengping He Gustaf Hugelius Martin Jakobsson Miriam C Jones DongJoo Joung Gleb Kraev Robie W Macdonald A David McGuire Cuicui Mu Matt O’Regan Kathryn M Schreiner Christian Stranne Elena Pizhankova Alexander Vasiliev Sebastian Westermann Jay P Zarnetske Tingjun Zhang Mehran Ghandehari Sarah Baeumler Brian C Brown Rebecca J Frei Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
topic_facet |
subsea permafrost carbon stocks climate change expert assessment Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH _4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH _4 . Current fluxes of CH _4 and carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr ^−1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO _2 -equivalent (CO _2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO _2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi Benjamin W Abbott Brett F Thornton Jennifer M Frederick Jorien E Vonk Paul Overduin Christina Schädel Edward A G Schuur Annie Bourbonnais Nikita Demidov Anatoly Gavrilov Shengping He Gustaf Hugelius Martin Jakobsson Miriam C Jones DongJoo Joung Gleb Kraev Robie W Macdonald A David McGuire Cuicui Mu Matt O’Regan Kathryn M Schreiner Christian Stranne Elena Pizhankova Alexander Vasiliev Sebastian Westermann Jay P Zarnetske Tingjun Zhang Mehran Ghandehari Sarah Baeumler Brian C Brown Rebecca J Frei |
author_facet |
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi Benjamin W Abbott Brett F Thornton Jennifer M Frederick Jorien E Vonk Paul Overduin Christina Schädel Edward A G Schuur Annie Bourbonnais Nikita Demidov Anatoly Gavrilov Shengping He Gustaf Hugelius Martin Jakobsson Miriam C Jones DongJoo Joung Gleb Kraev Robie W Macdonald A David McGuire Cuicui Mu Matt O’Regan Kathryn M Schreiner Christian Stranne Elena Pizhankova Alexander Vasiliev Sebastian Westermann Jay P Zarnetske Tingjun Zhang Mehran Ghandehari Sarah Baeumler Brian C Brown Rebecca J Frei |
author_sort |
Sayedeh Sara Sayedi |
title |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_short |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_full |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
title_sort |
subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://doaj.org/article/01108997f4c14a3cb2c3d4e1b078268f |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 12, p 124075 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/01108997f4c14a3cb2c3d4e1b078268f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124075 |
_version_ |
1776198627996205056 |