Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models
Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a majo...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 2023-05-15T16:25:15+02:00 Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall 2018-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3287-3292 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 2022-12-31T02:03:51Z Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 12 10 3287 3292 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall |
author_facet |
E. Hanna X. Fettweis R. J. Hall |
author_sort |
E. Hanna |
title |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_short |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_full |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_fullStr |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Brief communication: Recent changes in summer Greenland blocking captured by none of the CMIP5 models |
title_sort |
brief communication: recent changes in summer greenland blocking captured by none of the cmip5 models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3287-3292 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3287/2018/tc-12-3287-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/00c54314280444569b6e6107b3fa8071 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3287-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3287 |
op_container_end_page |
3292 |
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1766013987132014592 |