A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland
This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribut...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:0074a852e4c04f459b8f26ebfd1cd62e 2023-05-15T17:44:30+02:00 A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland David Rayner Christine Achberger Deliang Chen 2016-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006 https://doaj.org/article/0074a852e4c04f459b8f26ebfd1cd62e EN eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927815300150 https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9278 1674-9278 doi:10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006 https://doaj.org/article/0074a852e4c04f459b8f26ebfd1cd62e Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 70-81 (2016) Weather generator Multi-state Torne River Precipitation Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006 2022-12-31T07:55:44Z This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution (including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric (Gamma) amounts model; a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model; and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration. Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best. We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Advances in Climate Change Research 7 1-2 70 81 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Weather generator Multi-state Torne River Precipitation Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
spellingShingle |
Weather generator Multi-state Torne River Precipitation Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 David Rayner Christine Achberger Deliang Chen A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland |
topic_facet |
Weather generator Multi-state Torne River Precipitation Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
description |
This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution (including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric (Gamma) amounts model; a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model; and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration. Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best. We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
David Rayner Christine Achberger Deliang Chen |
author_facet |
David Rayner Christine Achberger Deliang Chen |
author_sort |
David Rayner |
title |
A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland |
title_short |
A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland |
title_full |
A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland |
title_fullStr |
A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland |
title_sort |
multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the torne river basin, northern sweden/western finland |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006 https://doaj.org/article/0074a852e4c04f459b8f26ebfd1cd62e |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_source |
Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 70-81 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927815300150 https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9278 1674-9278 doi:10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006 https://doaj.org/article/0074a852e4c04f459b8f26ebfd1cd62e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006 |
container_title |
Advances in Climate Change Research |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
70 |
op_container_end_page |
81 |
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1766146728620195840 |