The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis
Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960�2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations...
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ftdlr:oai:elib.dlr.de:66277 2023-05-15T13:37:16+02:00 The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D.A. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M.P. Cugnet, D. Dameris, Martin Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R.R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S.C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J.F. Mancini, E. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, O. Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T.G. Shibata, K. Teyssèdre, H. Wilson, R.J. Yamashita, Y. 2010 application/pdf http://elib.dlr.de/66277/ http://elib.dlr.de/66277/1/2010JD013857.pdf http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/jd1021/2010JD013857/2010JD013857.pdf en eng Wiley http://elib.dlr.de/66277/1/2010JD013857.pdf Austin, John und Scinocca, J. und Plummer, D.A. und Oman, L. und Waugh, D. und Akiyoshi, H. und Bekki, S. und Braesicke, P. und Butchart, N. und Chipperfield, M.P. und Cugnet, D. und Dameris, Martin und Dhomse, S. und Eyring, V. und Frith, S. und Garcia, R.R. und Garny, H. und Gettelman, A. und Hardiman, S.C. und Kinnison, D. und Lamarque, J.F. und Mancini, E. und Marchand, M. und Michou, M. und Morgenstern, O. und Nakamura, T. und Pawson, S. und Pitari, G. und Pyle, J. und Rozanov, E. und Shepherd, T.G. und Shibata, K. und Teyssèdre, H. und Wilson, R.J. und Yamashita, Y. (2010) The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D00M10), Seiten 1-23. Wiley. DOI:10.1029/2010JD013857 Dynamik der Atmosphäre Zeitschriftenbeitrag PeerReviewed 2010 ftdlr https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 2018-03-11T23:50:15Z Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960âÂ�Â�2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library Antarctic The Antarctic Journal of Geophysical Research 115 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
op_collection_id |
ftdlr |
language |
English |
topic |
Dynamik der Atmosphäre |
spellingShingle |
Dynamik der Atmosphäre Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D.A. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M.P. Cugnet, D. Dameris, Martin Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R.R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S.C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J.F. Mancini, E. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, O. Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T.G. Shibata, K. Teyssèdre, H. Wilson, R.J. Yamashita, Y. The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
topic_facet |
Dynamik der Atmosphäre |
description |
Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960�2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D.A. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M.P. Cugnet, D. Dameris, Martin Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R.R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S.C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J.F. Mancini, E. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, O. Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T.G. Shibata, K. Teyssèdre, H. Wilson, R.J. Yamashita, Y. |
author_facet |
Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D.A. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M.P. Cugnet, D. Dameris, Martin Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R.R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S.C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J.F. Mancini, E. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, O. Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T.G. Shibata, K. Teyssèdre, H. Wilson, R.J. Yamashita, Y. |
author_sort |
Austin, John |
title |
The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_short |
The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_full |
The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_fullStr |
The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_sort |
decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://elib.dlr.de/66277/ http://elib.dlr.de/66277/1/2010JD013857.pdf http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/jd1021/2010JD013857/2010JD013857.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
http://elib.dlr.de/66277/1/2010JD013857.pdf Austin, John und Scinocca, J. und Plummer, D.A. und Oman, L. und Waugh, D. und Akiyoshi, H. und Bekki, S. und Braesicke, P. und Butchart, N. und Chipperfield, M.P. und Cugnet, D. und Dameris, Martin und Dhomse, S. und Eyring, V. und Frith, S. und Garcia, R.R. und Garny, H. und Gettelman, A. und Hardiman, S.C. und Kinnison, D. und Lamarque, J.F. und Mancini, E. und Marchand, M. und Michou, M. und Morgenstern, O. und Nakamura, T. und Pawson, S. und Pitari, G. und Pyle, J. und Rozanov, E. und Shepherd, T.G. und Shibata, K. und Teyssèdre, H. und Wilson, R.J. und Yamashita, Y. (2010) The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D00M10), Seiten 1-23. Wiley. DOI:10.1029/2010JD013857 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
115 |
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1766089951590481920 |