Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Simulations of the recent past from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) participating in the CCM Validation Activity for SPARC (CCMVal) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone projections made by the same CCMs. Several different diagnostics are used to evaluate...
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ftdlr:oai:elib.dlr.de:49415 2024-05-19T07:29:13+00:00 Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century Eyring, Veronika 2007-07-02 https://elib.dlr.de/49415/ http://www.iugg2007perugia.it/ unknown Eyring, Veronika (2007) Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. IUGG General Assembly 2007, 2007-07-02 - 2007-07-13, Perugia, (I). Dynamik der Atmosphäre Konferenzbeitrag NonPeerReviewed 2007 ftdlr 2024-04-25T00:10:51Z Simulations of the recent past from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) participating in the CCM Validation Activity for SPARC (CCMVal) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone projections made by the same CCMs. Several different diagnostics are used to evaluate temperature, trace species and ozone in the models. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960-2004). Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. The simulated ozone evolution in the 21st century in the CCMs is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the models are key to diagnosing the inter-model differences in simulated ozone hole recovery. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a corresponding large range in the timing of recovery of Antarctic ozone back to 1980 values. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
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Open Polar |
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German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Dynamik der Atmosphäre |
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Dynamik der Atmosphäre Eyring, Veronika Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
topic_facet |
Dynamik der Atmosphäre |
description |
Simulations of the recent past from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) participating in the CCM Validation Activity for SPARC (CCMVal) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone projections made by the same CCMs. Several different diagnostics are used to evaluate temperature, trace species and ozone in the models. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960-2004). Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. The simulated ozone evolution in the 21st century in the CCMs is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the models are key to diagnosing the inter-model differences in simulated ozone hole recovery. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a corresponding large range in the timing of recovery of Antarctic ozone back to 1980 values. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Eyring, Veronika |
author_facet |
Eyring, Veronika |
author_sort |
Eyring, Veronika |
title |
Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://elib.dlr.de/49415/ http://www.iugg2007perugia.it/ |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
Eyring, Veronika (2007) Multi-model projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. IUGG General Assembly 2007, 2007-07-02 - 2007-07-13, Perugia, (I). |
_version_ |
1799478096121823232 |