Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6
To analyze links among key processes that contribute to Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as causal graphs. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations during 1980–2021. Observations show several robust connections from ear...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Online Access: | https://elib.dlr.de/198511/ https://elib.dlr.de/198511/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Galytska%20-%20Evaluating%20Causal%20Arctic%E2%80%90Midlatitude%20Teleconnections%20in%20CMIP6.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978 |
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ftdlr:oai:elib.dlr.de:198511 2023-11-12T04:00:24+01:00 Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 Galytska, Evgenia Weigel, Katja Handorf, Dörthe Jaiser, Ralf Köhler, Raphael Runge, Jakob Eyring, Veronika 2023-09-23 application/pdf https://elib.dlr.de/198511/ https://elib.dlr.de/198511/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Galytska%20-%20Evaluating%20Causal%20Arctic%E2%80%90Midlatitude%20Teleconnections%20in%20CMIP6.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978 en eng Wiley https://elib.dlr.de/198511/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Galytska%20-%20Evaluating%20Causal%20Arctic%E2%80%90Midlatitude%20Teleconnections%20in%20CMIP6.pdf Galytska, Evgenia und Weigel, Katja und Handorf, Dörthe und Jaiser, Ralf und Köhler, Raphael und Runge, Jakob und Eyring, Veronika (2023) Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (17). Wiley. doi:10.1029/2022JD037978 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978>. ISSN 2169-897X. cc_by Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse Datenanalyse und -intelligenz Zeitschriftenbeitrag PeerReviewed 2023 ftdlr https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978 2023-10-30T00:24:36Z To analyze links among key processes that contribute to Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as causal graphs. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations during 1980–2021. Observations show several robust connections from early to late winter, such as atmospheric blocking within central Asia via the Ural blocking and Siberian High, the North Atlantic Oscillation phase and the polar vortex (PV). The PV is affected by poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which is also directly connected with the Aleutian Low. We then evaluate climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by comparing their causal graphs with those derived from observations. Compared to observations, CMIP6 historical and future simulations do not robustly capture Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections arising from Arctic sea ice variability. This highlights the role of atmospheric internal variability in modulating the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections. However, we find several distinct patterns that are simulated by most of the analyzed climate models. For example, both historical and future model simulations robustly capture observed atmospheric blocking in central Asia. But contrary to observations, model simulations show a robust link between the Arctic temperature and sea ice cover over Barents and Kara seas. The analysis of future changes also reveals that the connection between the Aleutian Low and the poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa is expected to become more robust toward the end of the 21st century than in the analyzed past. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128 17 |
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Open Polar |
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German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
op_collection_id |
ftdlr |
language |
English |
topic |
Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse Datenanalyse und -intelligenz |
spellingShingle |
Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse Datenanalyse und -intelligenz Galytska, Evgenia Weigel, Katja Handorf, Dörthe Jaiser, Ralf Köhler, Raphael Runge, Jakob Eyring, Veronika Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse Datenanalyse und -intelligenz |
description |
To analyze links among key processes that contribute to Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as causal graphs. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations during 1980–2021. Observations show several robust connections from early to late winter, such as atmospheric blocking within central Asia via the Ural blocking and Siberian High, the North Atlantic Oscillation phase and the polar vortex (PV). The PV is affected by poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which is also directly connected with the Aleutian Low. We then evaluate climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by comparing their causal graphs with those derived from observations. Compared to observations, CMIP6 historical and future simulations do not robustly capture Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections arising from Arctic sea ice variability. This highlights the role of atmospheric internal variability in modulating the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections. However, we find several distinct patterns that are simulated by most of the analyzed climate models. For example, both historical and future model simulations robustly capture observed atmospheric blocking in central Asia. But contrary to observations, model simulations show a robust link between the Arctic temperature and sea ice cover over Barents and Kara seas. The analysis of future changes also reveals that the connection between the Aleutian Low and the poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa is expected to become more robust toward the end of the 21st century than in the analyzed past. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Galytska, Evgenia Weigel, Katja Handorf, Dörthe Jaiser, Ralf Köhler, Raphael Runge, Jakob Eyring, Veronika |
author_facet |
Galytska, Evgenia Weigel, Katja Handorf, Dörthe Jaiser, Ralf Köhler, Raphael Runge, Jakob Eyring, Veronika |
author_sort |
Galytska, Evgenia |
title |
Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
evaluating causal arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections in cmip6 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://elib.dlr.de/198511/ https://elib.dlr.de/198511/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Galytska%20-%20Evaluating%20Causal%20Arctic%E2%80%90Midlatitude%20Teleconnections%20in%20CMIP6.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978 |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://elib.dlr.de/198511/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Galytska%20-%20Evaluating%20Causal%20Arctic%E2%80%90Midlatitude%20Teleconnections%20in%20CMIP6.pdf Galytska, Evgenia und Weigel, Katja und Handorf, Dörthe und Jaiser, Ralf und Köhler, Raphael und Runge, Jakob und Eyring, Veronika (2023) Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (17). Wiley. doi:10.1029/2022JD037978 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978>. ISSN 2169-897X. |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
17 |
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1782327748306403328 |