An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions

• Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• Main Authors: Plu, M., Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Arnold Arias, D., Baro, R., Bigeard, G., Bugliaro Goggia, Luca, Carvalho, A., El Amraoui, L., Eschbacher, K., Hirtl, M., Maurer, C., Mulder, M., Piontek, Dennis, Robertson, L., Rokitansky, C.-H., Zobl, F., Zopp, R.
• Format: Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2021
• Subjects: Wolkenphysik; Eyjafjallajökull
• Online Access: https://elib.dlr.de/142087/; https://elib.dlr.de/142087/1/nhess-21-2973-2021.pdf; https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2973/2021/

High-quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modelling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such an approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010. Its use for flight planning is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection.