Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to no...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Online Access: | https://elib.dlr.de/134326/ https://elib.dlr.de/134326/1/Alet-Hassler-jgr2020-2019JD032345.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD032345 |
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ftdlr:oai:elib.dlr.de:134326 2023-05-15T17:35:27+02:00 Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models Ayarzagüena, Blanca Charlton-Perez, A. J. Butler, A. Hitchcock, Peter Simpson, Isla R. Polvani, Lorenzo M. Butchart, N. Gerber, E. P. Gray, Lesley Hassler, Birgit Lin, P. Lott, F. Manzini, E. Mizuta, R. Orbe, Clara Osprey, S.M. Saint-Martin, David Sigmond, M. Taguchi, M. Volodin, E.M. Watanabe, S. 2020-03-27 application/pdf https://elib.dlr.de/134326/ https://elib.dlr.de/134326/1/Alet-Hassler-jgr2020-2019JD032345.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD032345 en eng Wiley https://elib.dlr.de/134326/1/Alet-Hassler-jgr2020-2019JD032345.pdf Ayarzagüena, Blanca und Charlton-Perez, A. J. und Butler, A. und Hitchcock, Peter und Simpson, Isla R. und Polvani, Lorenzo M. und Butchart, N. und Gerber, E. P. und Gray, Lesley und Hassler, Birgit und Lin, P. und Lott, F. und Manzini, E. und Mizuta, R. und Orbe, Clara und Osprey, S.M. und Saint-Martin, David und Sigmond, M. und Taguchi, M. und Volodin, E.M. und Watanabe, S. (2020) Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (6), e2019JD032345/1-21. Wiley. DOI:10.1029/2019JD032345 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345> ISSN 0148-0227 cc_by_nc_nd CC-BY-NC-ND Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse Zeitschriftenbeitrag PeerReviewed 2020 ftdlr https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345 2021-02-22T00:03:28Z Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near‐surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library Pacific Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
op_collection_id |
ftdlr |
language |
English |
topic |
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse |
spellingShingle |
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse Ayarzagüena, Blanca Charlton-Perez, A. J. Butler, A. Hitchcock, Peter Simpson, Isla R. Polvani, Lorenzo M. Butchart, N. Gerber, E. P. Gray, Lesley Hassler, Birgit Lin, P. Lott, F. Manzini, E. Mizuta, R. Orbe, Clara Osprey, S.M. Saint-Martin, David Sigmond, M. Taguchi, M. Volodin, E.M. Watanabe, S. Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models |
topic_facet |
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse |
description |
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near‐surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Charlton-Perez, A. J. Butler, A. Hitchcock, Peter Simpson, Isla R. Polvani, Lorenzo M. Butchart, N. Gerber, E. P. Gray, Lesley Hassler, Birgit Lin, P. Lott, F. Manzini, E. Mizuta, R. Orbe, Clara Osprey, S.M. Saint-Martin, David Sigmond, M. Taguchi, M. Volodin, E.M. Watanabe, S. |
author_facet |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Charlton-Perez, A. J. Butler, A. Hitchcock, Peter Simpson, Isla R. Polvani, Lorenzo M. Butchart, N. Gerber, E. P. Gray, Lesley Hassler, Birgit Lin, P. Lott, F. Manzini, E. Mizuta, R. Orbe, Clara Osprey, S.M. Saint-Martin, David Sigmond, M. Taguchi, M. Volodin, E.M. Watanabe, S. |
author_sort |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca |
title |
Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models |
title_short |
Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models |
title_full |
Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models |
title_sort |
uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled co2 concentrations in cmip6 models |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://elib.dlr.de/134326/ https://elib.dlr.de/134326/1/Alet-Hassler-jgr2020-2019JD032345.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019JD032345 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://elib.dlr.de/134326/1/Alet-Hassler-jgr2020-2019JD032345.pdf Ayarzagüena, Blanca und Charlton-Perez, A. J. und Butler, A. und Hitchcock, Peter und Simpson, Isla R. und Polvani, Lorenzo M. und Butchart, N. und Gerber, E. P. und Gray, Lesley und Hassler, Birgit und Lin, P. und Lott, F. und Manzini, E. und Mizuta, R. und Orbe, Clara und Osprey, S.M. und Saint-Martin, David und Sigmond, M. und Taguchi, M. und Volodin, E.M. und Watanabe, S. (2020) Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere‐troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (6), e2019JD032345/1-21. Wiley. DOI:10.1029/2019JD032345 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345> ISSN 0148-0227 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032345 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
125 |
container_issue |
6 |
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1766134627154526208 |