Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models
Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variability and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and surface temperatures in spring–summer. This study investigates whether current chemistry–climate models (CCMs) can capt...
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American Meteorological Society
2019
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Online Access: | https://elib.dlr.de/127422/ https://elib.dlr.de/127422/1/jcli-d-18-0273.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 |
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ftdlr:oai:elib.dlr.de:127422 2023-05-15T13:53:09+02:00 Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models Gillett, Zoe E. Arblaster, Julie M. Dittus, Andrea J. Deushi, Makoto Jöckel, Patrick Kinnison, Douglas E. Morgenstern, Olaf Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane A. Tilmes, Simone 2019-05-08 application/pdf https://elib.dlr.de/127422/ https://elib.dlr.de/127422/1/jcli-d-18-0273.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 en eng American Meteorological Society https://elib.dlr.de/127422/1/jcli-d-18-0273.1.pdf Gillett, Zoe E. und Arblaster, Julie M. und Dittus, Andrea J. und Deushi, Makoto und Jöckel, Patrick und Kinnison, Douglas E. und Morgenstern, Olaf und Plummer, David A. und Revell, Laura E. und Rozanov, Eugene und Schofield, Robyn und Stenke, Andrea und Stone, Kane A. und Tilmes, Simone (2019) Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 32 (11), Seiten 3131-3151. American Meteorological Society. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1> ISSN 0894-8755 cc_by CC-BY Erdsystem-Modellierung Zeitschriftenbeitrag PeerReviewed 2019 ftdlr https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 2020-05-31T23:00:15Z Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variability and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and surface temperatures in spring–summer. This study investigates whether current chemistry–climate models (CCMs) can capture these relationships, in particular, the connection between November total column ozone (TCO) and Australian summer surface temperatures, where years with anomalously high TCO over the Antarctic polar cap tend to be followed by warmer summers. The interannual ozone–temperature teleconnection is examined over the historical period in the observations and simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and nine other models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). There is a systematic difference between the WACCM experiments forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and those with an interactive ocean. Strong correlations between TCO and Australian temperatures are only obtained for the uncoupled experiment, suggesting that the SSTs could be important for driving both variations in Australian temperatures and the ozone hole, with no causal link between the two. Other CCMI models also tend to capture this relationship with more fidelity when driven by observed SSTs, although additional research and targeted modeling experiments are required to determine causality and further explore the role of model biases and observational uncertainty. The results indicate that CCMs can reproduce the relationship between spring ozone and summer Australian climate reported in observational studies, suggesting that incorporating ozone variability could improve seasonal predictions; however, more work is required to understand the difference between the coupled and uncoupled simulations. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library Antarctic The Antarctic Journal of Climate 32 11 3131 3151 |
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German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
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English |
topic |
Erdsystem-Modellierung |
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Erdsystem-Modellierung Gillett, Zoe E. Arblaster, Julie M. Dittus, Andrea J. Deushi, Makoto Jöckel, Patrick Kinnison, Douglas E. Morgenstern, Olaf Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane A. Tilmes, Simone Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models |
topic_facet |
Erdsystem-Modellierung |
description |
Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variability and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and surface temperatures in spring–summer. This study investigates whether current chemistry–climate models (CCMs) can capture these relationships, in particular, the connection between November total column ozone (TCO) and Australian summer surface temperatures, where years with anomalously high TCO over the Antarctic polar cap tend to be followed by warmer summers. The interannual ozone–temperature teleconnection is examined over the historical period in the observations and simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and nine other models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). There is a systematic difference between the WACCM experiments forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and those with an interactive ocean. Strong correlations between TCO and Australian temperatures are only obtained for the uncoupled experiment, suggesting that the SSTs could be important for driving both variations in Australian temperatures and the ozone hole, with no causal link between the two. Other CCMI models also tend to capture this relationship with more fidelity when driven by observed SSTs, although additional research and targeted modeling experiments are required to determine causality and further explore the role of model biases and observational uncertainty. The results indicate that CCMs can reproduce the relationship between spring ozone and summer Australian climate reported in observational studies, suggesting that incorporating ozone variability could improve seasonal predictions; however, more work is required to understand the difference between the coupled and uncoupled simulations. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gillett, Zoe E. Arblaster, Julie M. Dittus, Andrea J. Deushi, Makoto Jöckel, Patrick Kinnison, Douglas E. Morgenstern, Olaf Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane A. Tilmes, Simone |
author_facet |
Gillett, Zoe E. Arblaster, Julie M. Dittus, Andrea J. Deushi, Makoto Jöckel, Patrick Kinnison, Douglas E. Morgenstern, Olaf Plummer, David A. Revell, Laura E. Rozanov, Eugene Schofield, Robyn Stenke, Andrea Stone, Kane A. Tilmes, Simone |
author_sort |
Gillett, Zoe E. |
title |
Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models |
title_short |
Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models |
title_full |
Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models |
title_sort |
evaluating the relationship between interannual variations in the antarctic ozone hole and southern hemisphere surface climate in chemistry–climate models |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://elib.dlr.de/127422/ https://elib.dlr.de/127422/1/jcli-d-18-0273.1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
https://elib.dlr.de/127422/1/jcli-d-18-0273.1.pdf Gillett, Zoe E. und Arblaster, Julie M. und Dittus, Andrea J. und Deushi, Makoto und Jöckel, Patrick und Kinnison, Douglas E. und Morgenstern, Olaf und Plummer, David A. und Revell, Laura E. und Rozanov, Eugene und Schofield, Robyn und Stenke, Andrea und Stone, Kane A. und Tilmes, Simone (2019) Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 32 (11), Seiten 3131-3151. American Meteorological Society. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1> ISSN 0894-8755 |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
3131 |
op_container_end_page |
3151 |
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1766258118489014272 |