No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future chan...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Online Access: | https://elib.dlr.de/121395/ https://elib.dlr.de/121395/1/acp-18-11277-2018.pdf https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/11277/2018/ |
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ftdlr:oai:elib.dlr.de:121395 2023-05-15T15:06:09+02:00 No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, M. Hardiman, S. C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, A. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, F. M. Oman, L. D. Plummer, D. A. Revell, L. Rozanov, E. Saint-Martin, D. Scinocca, J. Stenke, A. Stone, K. Yamashita, Y. Yoshida, K. Zeng, G. 2018-08-13 application/pdf https://elib.dlr.de/121395/ https://elib.dlr.de/121395/1/acp-18-11277-2018.pdf https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/11277/2018/ en eng Copernicus Publications https://elib.dlr.de/121395/1/acp-18-11277-2018.pdf Ayarzagüena, Blanca und Polvani, Lorenzo M. und Langematz, Ulrike und Akiyoshi, H. und Bekki, S. und Butchart, Neal und Dameris, Martin und Deushi, M. und Hardiman, S. C. und Jöckel, Patrick und Klekociuk, A. und Marchand, M. und Michou, M. und Morgenstern, Olaf und O'Connor, F. M. und Oman, L. D. und Plummer, D. A. und Revell, L. und Rozanov, E. und Saint-Martin, D. und Scinocca, J. und Stenke, A. und Stone, K. und Yamashita, Y. und Yoshida, K. und Zeng, G. (2018) No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 18 (15), Seiten 11277-11287. Copernicus Publications. DOI:10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 <https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018> ISSN 1680-7316 cc_by_nc CC-BY-NC Erdsystem-Modellierung Zeitschriftenbeitrag PeerReviewed 2018 ftdlr https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 2019-05-05T22:53:05Z Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper Arctic polar night German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18 15 11277 11287 |
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German Aerospace Center: elib - DLR electronic library |
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language |
English |
topic |
Erdsystem-Modellierung |
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Erdsystem-Modellierung Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, M. Hardiman, S. C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, A. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, F. M. Oman, L. D. Plummer, D. A. Revell, L. Rozanov, E. Saint-Martin, D. Scinocca, J. Stenke, A. Stone, K. Yamashita, Y. Yoshida, K. Zeng, G. No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI |
topic_facet |
Erdsystem-Modellierung |
description |
Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, M. Hardiman, S. C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, A. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, F. M. Oman, L. D. Plummer, D. A. Revell, L. Rozanov, E. Saint-Martin, D. Scinocca, J. Stenke, A. Stone, K. Yamashita, Y. Yoshida, K. Zeng, G. |
author_facet |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca Polvani, Lorenzo M. Langematz, Ulrike Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, S. Butchart, Neal Dameris, Martin Deushi, M. Hardiman, S. C. Jöckel, Patrick Klekociuk, A. Marchand, M. Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf O'Connor, F. M. Oman, L. D. Plummer, D. A. Revell, L. Rozanov, E. Saint-Martin, D. Scinocca, J. Stenke, A. Stone, K. Yamashita, Y. Yoshida, K. Zeng, G. |
author_sort |
Ayarzagüena, Blanca |
title |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_short |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_full |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_fullStr |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_full_unstemmed |
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI |
title_sort |
no robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from ccmi |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://elib.dlr.de/121395/ https://elib.dlr.de/121395/1/acp-18-11277-2018.pdf https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/11277/2018/ |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic polar night |
genre_facet |
Arctic polar night |
op_relation |
https://elib.dlr.de/121395/1/acp-18-11277-2018.pdf Ayarzagüena, Blanca und Polvani, Lorenzo M. und Langematz, Ulrike und Akiyoshi, H. und Bekki, S. und Butchart, Neal und Dameris, Martin und Deushi, M. und Hardiman, S. C. und Jöckel, Patrick und Klekociuk, A. und Marchand, M. und Michou, M. und Morgenstern, Olaf und O'Connor, F. M. und Oman, L. D. und Plummer, D. A. und Revell, L. und Rozanov, E. und Saint-Martin, D. und Scinocca, J. und Stenke, A. und Stone, K. und Yamashita, Y. und Yoshida, K. und Zeng, G. (2018) No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 18 (15), Seiten 11277-11287. Copernicus Publications. DOI:10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 <https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018> ISSN 1680-7316 |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 |
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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15 |
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11277 |
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