Hydrographic study of Shatt Al-Arab estuary in the context of climate change

• Main Author: MAHMOOD, Ali Bassal
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Ordu University 2019
• Subjects: Shatt Al-Arab estuary; North Atlantic Oscillation; Dipole Mode; Southern Oscillation; Parametric methods; Pacific; Soi; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/trjmms/issue/50668/596495

This paper presents key results (at thefirst time) for the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the IndianOcean Dipole Mode (DMI) and the Southern Pacific Ocean Oscillation (SOI) eventson the hydrographic and climatic parameters at the mid of Shatt Al-Arab estuary(i.e. Basrah city centre) by using correlation analysis and standard ordinarylinear regression as an autoregressive process of order 1. The analysisexamined the discharge, salinity, sea surface water temperature and airtemperature over the period 2005-2014 (i.e. interannual, monthly and seasonaldatasets). The formal regressions have been estimated by using the first-degreeautoregressive AR (1) model, which includes calculations of the GLS-GeneralizedLeast Square Error Minimization regression method, for obtaining more stablesolutions in the context of climate change. The correlation is accounted forusing the standard ordinary bivariate linear regression method. The mainresults indicate that the hydrographic and climatic variables in the study the region experienced general trends of decrease in discharge of 2.0936 (m3/sec),increase in salinity of 0.0071 (‰), increase in air temperature of 0.0178 (⁰C)and an increase in sea surface temperature of 0.0098 (⁰C). Significant correlations,as well as prediction equations, were found between discharge and SOI, then,salinity and sea surface temperature with NAO, and finally between airtemperature with NAO/DMI/SOI. The Pardé coefficients reflect the Karuninfluence during spring in the context of climate change.