Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models
The development of data-driven models in conjunction with the advances in technologies regarded as remote sensing in generating recorded data from satellites has guided water management studies towards using these technologies, especially in the regions dealing with drought, like the Lake Urmia basi...
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Ankara Üniversitesi
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ftdergipark2ojs:oai:dergipark.org.tr:article/1067486 2024-02-04T10:02:52+01:00 Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models SHAKER SUREH, Fatemeh SATTARİ, Mohammad Taghi ROSTAMZADEH, Hashem KAHYA, Ercan 2022-02-03 application/pdf https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ankutbd/issue/82623/1067486 https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1067486 eng eng Ankara Üniversitesi Ankara University https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2229914 https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ankutbd/issue/82623/1067486 doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1067486 Volume: 30, Issue: 1 61-78 1300-7580 2148-9297 Journal of Agricultural Sciences Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi SPEI;The Urmia Lake basin;M5 Tree Model;Associate Rules;Iran Engineering Mühendislik info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftdergipark2ojs https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1067486 2024-01-11T18:10:39Z The development of data-driven models in conjunction with the advances in technologies regarded as remote sensing in generating recorded data from satellites has guided water management studies towards using these technologies, especially in the regions dealing with drought, like the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. In this basin, the agricultural sector has been exposed to dryness due to a decrease in rainfall and uncontrolled water consumption. In the last decade, many studies have tried to brighten this arena of water knowledge. However, the relationship between meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation with the meteorological drought of Lake Urmia had never been determined. The relationship between meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation with Lake Urmia's meteorological drought has been determined. This study calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values based on meteorological variables. Then a combination of the meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation values was considered a data mining model input for estimating the droughts. The series of the SPEI values for 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month time scales were obtained during 1988-2016. In this study, both the M5 Tree model and Associate Rules were used to predict and analyze the meteorological drought at six synoptic stations in the basin, considering both the atmospheric circulations (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Mediterranean Oscillation Index of Gibraltar-Israel (Mogi), Mediterranean Oscillation Index of Algiers-Cairo (MOac), Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WEMO), Mediterranean, Red, Black, Caspian, and Persian Gulf SSTs) and the meteorological variables (lagged relative humidity, evapotranspiration, average temperature, minimum-maximum temperature, and pressure). The results showed that using a combination of the atmospheric circulation indices and meteorological variables in the models increases the model's accuracy and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation DergiPark Akademik (E-Journals) Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DergiPark Akademik (E-Journals) |
op_collection_id |
ftdergipark2ojs |
language |
English |
topic |
SPEI;The Urmia Lake basin;M5 Tree Model;Associate Rules;Iran Engineering Mühendislik |
spellingShingle |
SPEI;The Urmia Lake basin;M5 Tree Model;Associate Rules;Iran Engineering Mühendislik SHAKER SUREH, Fatemeh SATTARİ, Mohammad Taghi ROSTAMZADEH, Hashem KAHYA, Ercan Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models |
topic_facet |
SPEI;The Urmia Lake basin;M5 Tree Model;Associate Rules;Iran Engineering Mühendislik |
description |
The development of data-driven models in conjunction with the advances in technologies regarded as remote sensing in generating recorded data from satellites has guided water management studies towards using these technologies, especially in the regions dealing with drought, like the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. In this basin, the agricultural sector has been exposed to dryness due to a decrease in rainfall and uncontrolled water consumption. In the last decade, many studies have tried to brighten this arena of water knowledge. However, the relationship between meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation with the meteorological drought of Lake Urmia had never been determined. The relationship between meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation with Lake Urmia's meteorological drought has been determined. This study calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values based on meteorological variables. Then a combination of the meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation values was considered a data mining model input for estimating the droughts. The series of the SPEI values for 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month time scales were obtained during 1988-2016. In this study, both the M5 Tree model and Associate Rules were used to predict and analyze the meteorological drought at six synoptic stations in the basin, considering both the atmospheric circulations (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Mediterranean Oscillation Index of Gibraltar-Israel (Mogi), Mediterranean Oscillation Index of Algiers-Cairo (MOac), Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WEMO), Mediterranean, Red, Black, Caspian, and Persian Gulf SSTs) and the meteorological variables (lagged relative humidity, evapotranspiration, average temperature, minimum-maximum temperature, and pressure). The results showed that using a combination of the atmospheric circulation indices and meteorological variables in the models increases the model's accuracy and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
SHAKER SUREH, Fatemeh SATTARİ, Mohammad Taghi ROSTAMZADEH, Hashem KAHYA, Ercan |
author_facet |
SHAKER SUREH, Fatemeh SATTARİ, Mohammad Taghi ROSTAMZADEH, Hashem KAHYA, Ercan |
author_sort |
SHAKER SUREH, Fatemeh |
title |
Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models |
title_short |
Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models |
title_full |
Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models |
title_fullStr |
Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Meteorological Drought Assessment and Prediction in Association with Combination of Atmospheric Circulations and Meteorological Parameters via Rule Based Models |
title_sort |
meteorological drought assessment and prediction in association with combination of atmospheric circulations and meteorological parameters via rule based models |
publisher |
Ankara Üniversitesi |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ankutbd/issue/82623/1067486 https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1067486 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Soi |
geographic_facet |
Soi |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Volume: 30, Issue: 1 61-78 1300-7580 2148-9297 Journal of Agricultural Sciences Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi |
op_relation |
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2229914 https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ankutbd/issue/82623/1067486 doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1067486 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1067486 |
container_title |
Tarım Bilimleri Dergisi |
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1789969870519009280 |