CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship
Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Pr...
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ftdatacite:10.7916/d8zc82qs 2023-05-15T14:34:20+02:00 CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship Barnes, Elizabeth A. Polvani, Lorenzo M. 2015 https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8zc82qs https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8ZC82QS unknown Columbia University https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00589.1 Ozone-depleting substances Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric physics Global warming Climatic changes Atmosphere Meteorology Text Articles article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2015 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7916/d8zc82qs https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00589.1 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized. Text Arctic Global warming North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Ozone-depleting substances Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric physics Global warming Climatic changes Atmosphere Meteorology |
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Ozone-depleting substances Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric physics Global warming Climatic changes Atmosphere Meteorology Barnes, Elizabeth A. Polvani, Lorenzo M. CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship |
topic_facet |
Ozone-depleting substances Atmospheric circulation Atmospheric physics Global warming Climatic changes Atmosphere Meteorology |
description |
Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized. |
format |
Text |
author |
Barnes, Elizabeth A. Polvani, Lorenzo M. |
author_facet |
Barnes, Elizabeth A. Polvani, Lorenzo M. |
author_sort |
Barnes, Elizabeth A. |
title |
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship |
title_short |
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship |
title_full |
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship |
title_fullStr |
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship |
title_full_unstemmed |
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship |
title_sort |
cmip5 projections of arctic amplification, of the north american/north atlantic circulation, and of their relationship |
publisher |
Columbia University |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8zc82qs https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8ZC82QS |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00589.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8zc82qs https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00589.1 |
_version_ |
1766307388205301760 |