Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models ...

• Main Authors: Barnes, Elizabeth A., Barnes, Nicholas W., Polvani, Lorenzo M.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Columbia University 2014
• Subjects: Ozone layer depletion; Climatic changes; Southern Hemisphere; Greenhouse gases; Tropospheric circulation; Climatic changes > Forecasting; Atmosphere; Meteorology; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8th8mj9; https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8TH8MJ9

Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the end of this century because of the regulation of ozone-depleting substances by the Montreal Protocol. Targeted modeling studies have suggested that the climate response to ozone recovery will greatly oppose the climate response to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent of this cancellation remains unclear since only a few such studies are available. Here, a much larger set of simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project is analyzed, which includes ozone recovery. It is shown that the closing of the ozone hole will cause a delay in summertime [December–February (DJF)] Southern Hemisphere climate change between now and 2045. Specifically, it is found that the position of the jet stream, the width of the subtropical dry zones, the seasonality of surface temperatures, and sea ice concentrations all exhibit significantly reduced summertime trends over the first half of the twenty-first century as a consequence ...