California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ...
The unexpected dry 2015–2016 El Niño winter and extremely wet 2016–2017 La Niña winter in California challenged current seasonal prediction systems. Using the Met Office GloSea5 forecast ensemble, we study the precipitation and circulation differences between these seasons and identify processes rel...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8k08n7b https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8K08N7B |
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ftdatacite:10.7916/d8k08n7b 2024-10-13T14:04:54+00:00 California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... Singh, Deepti Ting, Mingfang Scaife, Adam A. Martin, Nicola 2018 https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8k08n7b https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8K08N7B unknown Columbia University https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078844 Climatic changes Precipitation variability Precipitation forecasting Climatic changes--Models Arctic oscillation Text article-journal Articles ScholarlyArticle 2018 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7916/d8k08n7b10.1029/2018gl078844 2024-10-01T12:04:31Z The unexpected dry 2015–2016 El Niño winter and extremely wet 2016–2017 La Niña winter in California challenged current seasonal prediction systems. Using the Met Office GloSea5 forecast ensemble, we study the precipitation and circulation differences between these seasons and identify processes relevant to California precipitation predictions. The ensemble mean accurately predicts the midlatitude atmospheric circulation differences between these years, indicating that these differences were predictable responses to the strong oceanic forcing differences. The substantial California precipitation differences were poorly predicted with large uncertainty. Notable differences in high-latitude circulation anomalies associated with internal variability distinguish the ensemble members that successfully simulate precipitation from those that do not. Specifically, accurate representation of the Arctic Oscillation phase differences improves the accuracy of simulated precipitation differences but these differences ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic DataCite Arctic |
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unknown |
topic |
Climatic changes Precipitation variability Precipitation forecasting Climatic changes--Models Arctic oscillation |
spellingShingle |
Climatic changes Precipitation variability Precipitation forecasting Climatic changes--Models Arctic oscillation Singh, Deepti Ting, Mingfang Scaife, Adam A. Martin, Nicola California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... |
topic_facet |
Climatic changes Precipitation variability Precipitation forecasting Climatic changes--Models Arctic oscillation |
description |
The unexpected dry 2015–2016 El Niño winter and extremely wet 2016–2017 La Niña winter in California challenged current seasonal prediction systems. Using the Met Office GloSea5 forecast ensemble, we study the precipitation and circulation differences between these seasons and identify processes relevant to California precipitation predictions. The ensemble mean accurately predicts the midlatitude atmospheric circulation differences between these years, indicating that these differences were predictable responses to the strong oceanic forcing differences. The substantial California precipitation differences were poorly predicted with large uncertainty. Notable differences in high-latitude circulation anomalies associated with internal variability distinguish the ensemble members that successfully simulate precipitation from those that do not. Specifically, accurate representation of the Arctic Oscillation phase differences improves the accuracy of simulated precipitation differences but these differences ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Singh, Deepti Ting, Mingfang Scaife, Adam A. Martin, Nicola |
author_facet |
Singh, Deepti Ting, Mingfang Scaife, Adam A. Martin, Nicola |
author_sort |
Singh, Deepti |
title |
California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... |
title_short |
California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... |
title_full |
California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... |
title_fullStr |
California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
California Winter Precipitation Predictability: Insights From the Anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 Seasons ... |
title_sort |
california winter precipitation predictability: insights from the anomalous 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 seasons ... |
publisher |
Columbia University |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8k08n7b https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8K08N7B |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078844 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8k08n7b10.1029/2018gl078844 |
_version_ |
1812810684531998720 |