The Interacting Dynamics of Tropical and Extratropical Climate: Insights from Observations, and Low-order and General Circulation Models ...

• Main Author: Karamperidou, Christina
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Columbia University 2012
• Subjects: Environmental sciences; Atmosphere; Climatic changes; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8fq9tpm; https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8FQ9TPM

Using methods from dynamical systems theory in observations, low-order and general circulation models (GCMs), this dissertation explores (a) the response of midlatitude jet and eddy energy to climate change and variability, and (b) variability in predictability of the first kind of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. First, an analysis framework inspired by the Lorenz-1984 model is developed to study the relationship of the probability structure of the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track (location and strength) with (a) hemispheric surface temperature gradients (equator-to-pole gradient and ocean-land contrast), and (b) ENSO. Both the equator-to-pole gradient and the ocean-land contrast are projected to decrease in response to greenhouse gas forcing. The shifts in the probability structure of jet and eddy energy in relation to decreasing surface temperature gradients are in the opposite direction than the shifts for El Niño forcing. However, in climate change projections, the El ...