On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate...
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Columbia University
2015
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ftdatacite:10.7916/d8fb530n 2023-05-15T17:33:22+02:00 On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Caron, Louis-Philippe Boudreault, Mathieu Camargo, Suzana J. 2015 https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8fb530n https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8FB530N unknown Columbia University https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0377.1 Tropical meteorology Cyclones--Mathematical models Climatic changes Hydrology Atmosphere Text Articles article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2015 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7916/d8fb530n https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0377.1 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014. Text North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Pacific |
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collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
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language |
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topic |
Tropical meteorology Cyclones--Mathematical models Climatic changes Hydrology Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
Tropical meteorology Cyclones--Mathematical models Climatic changes Hydrology Atmosphere Caron, Louis-Philippe Boudreault, Mathieu Camargo, Suzana J. On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity |
topic_facet |
Tropical meteorology Cyclones--Mathematical models Climatic changes Hydrology Atmosphere |
description |
Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014. |
format |
Text |
author |
Caron, Louis-Philippe Boudreault, Mathieu Camargo, Suzana J. |
author_facet |
Caron, Louis-Philippe Boudreault, Mathieu Camargo, Suzana J. |
author_sort |
Caron, Louis-Philippe |
title |
On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity |
title_short |
On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity |
title_full |
On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity |
title_fullStr |
On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity |
title_sort |
on the variability and predictability of eastern pacific tropical cyclone activity |
publisher |
Columbia University |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8fb530n https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8FB530N |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0377.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8fb530n https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0377.1 |
_version_ |
1766131848129282048 |