Natural and Forced North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Change in CMIP5 Models ...
Possible future changes of North Atlantic hurricane intensity and the attribution of past hurricane intensity changes in the historical period are investigated using phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), multimodel, multiensemble simulations. For this purpose, the potential i...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
Columbia University
2015
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d87m075j https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D87M075J |
| Summary: | Possible future changes of North Atlantic hurricane intensity and the attribution of past hurricane intensity changes in the historical period are investigated using phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), multimodel, multiensemble simulations. For this purpose, the potential intensity (PI), the theoretical upper limit of the tropical cyclone intensity given the large-scale environment, is used. The CMIP5 models indicate that the PI change as a function of sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is more effective than that associated with climate change. Thus, relatively small changes in SST due to natural multidecadal variability can lead to large changes in PI, and the model-simulated multidecadal PI change during the historical period has been largely dominated by AMV. That said, the multimodel mean PI for the Atlantic main development region shows a significant increase toward the end of the twenty-first century under both ... |
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