The Physical Basis for Predicting Atlantic Sector Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability ...

• Main Authors: Kushnir, Yochanan, Robinson, Walter A., Chang, Ping, Robertson, Andrew W.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Columbia University 2006
• Subjects: North Atlantic oscillation; Meteorology; Oceanography; FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d82234fz; https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D82234FZ

This paper reviews the observational and theoretical basis for the prediction of seasonal-to-interannual (S/I) climate variability in the Atlantic sector. The emphasis is on the large-scale picture rather than on regional details. The paper is divided into two main parts: a discussion of the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—the dominant pattern of variability in the North Atlantic—and a review of the tropical Atlantic prediction problem. The remote effects of El Niño are also mentioned as an important factor in Atlantic climate variability. Only a brief discussion is provided on the subject of South Atlantic climate predictability. Because of its chaotic dynamical nature, the NAO and its related rainfall and temperature variability, while highly significant over Europe and North America, are largely unpredictable. This also affects the predictive skill over the tropical Atlantic, because the NAO interferes with the remote influence of El Niño. That said, there appears to be an ...