Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’
The United States ‘warming hole’ is a region in the southeast/central U.S. where observed long-term surface temperature trends are insignificant or negative. We investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on these trends by systematically examining observed seasonal tempe...
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ftdatacite:10.7916/d81n86f7 2023-05-15T17:33:48+02:00 Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ Mascioli, Nora Rose Previdi, Michael Fiore, Arlene M. Ting, Mingfang 2017 https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d81n86f7 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D81N86F7 unknown Columbia University https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 Seasons Temperature Atmosphere Meteorology Text Articles article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2017 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7916/d81n86f7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The United States ‘warming hole’ is a region in the southeast/central U.S. where observed long-term surface temperature trends are insignificant or negative. We investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on these trends by systematically examining observed seasonal temperature trends over all time periods of at least 10 years during 1901–2015. Long-term summer cooling in the north central U.S. beginning in the 1930s reflects the recovery from the anomalously warm ‘Dust Bowl’ of that decade. In the northeast and southern U.S., significant summertime cooling occurs from the early 1950s to the mid 1970s, which we partially attribute to increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions (median fraction of the observed temperature trends explained is 0.69 and 0.17, respectively). In winter, the northeast and southern U.S. cool significantly from the early 1950s to the early 1990s, but we do not find evidence for a significant aerosol influence. Instead, long-term phase changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation contribute significantly to this cooling in both regions, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation also contributes significantly to southern U.S. cooling. Rather than stemming from a single cause, the U.S. warming hole reflects both anthropogenic aerosol forcing and internal climate variability, but the dominant drivers vary by season, region, and time period. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Pacific |
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Seasons Temperature Atmosphere Meteorology |
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Seasons Temperature Atmosphere Meteorology Mascioli, Nora Rose Previdi, Michael Fiore, Arlene M. Ting, Mingfang Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
topic_facet |
Seasons Temperature Atmosphere Meteorology |
description |
The United States ‘warming hole’ is a region in the southeast/central U.S. where observed long-term surface temperature trends are insignificant or negative. We investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on these trends by systematically examining observed seasonal temperature trends over all time periods of at least 10 years during 1901–2015. Long-term summer cooling in the north central U.S. beginning in the 1930s reflects the recovery from the anomalously warm ‘Dust Bowl’ of that decade. In the northeast and southern U.S., significant summertime cooling occurs from the early 1950s to the mid 1970s, which we partially attribute to increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions (median fraction of the observed temperature trends explained is 0.69 and 0.17, respectively). In winter, the northeast and southern U.S. cool significantly from the early 1950s to the early 1990s, but we do not find evidence for a significant aerosol influence. Instead, long-term phase changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation contribute significantly to this cooling in both regions, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation also contributes significantly to southern U.S. cooling. Rather than stemming from a single cause, the U.S. warming hole reflects both anthropogenic aerosol forcing and internal climate variability, but the dominant drivers vary by season, region, and time period. |
format |
Text |
author |
Mascioli, Nora Rose Previdi, Michael Fiore, Arlene M. Ting, Mingfang |
author_facet |
Mascioli, Nora Rose Previdi, Michael Fiore, Arlene M. Ting, Mingfang |
author_sort |
Mascioli, Nora Rose |
title |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_short |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_full |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_fullStr |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_full_unstemmed |
Timing and seasonality of the United States ‘warming hole’ |
title_sort |
timing and seasonality of the united states ‘warming hole’ |
publisher |
Columbia University |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d81n86f7 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D81N86F7 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d81n86f7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4 |
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1766132423651753984 |