Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites
Sea‐level rise due to both climate change and non‐climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea‐level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate di...
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ftdatacite:10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 2023-05-15T14:03:58+02:00 Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Radley M. Little, Christopher M. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Strauss, Benjamin H. Tebaldi, Claudia 2014 https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 unknown Columbia University https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000239 Tides--Mathematical models Sea level--Mathematical models Climatic changes Oceanography FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Text Articles article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2014 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000239 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Sea‐level rise due to both climate change and non‐climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea‐level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea‐level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site‐to‐site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non‐climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1‐in‐10” and “1‐in‐100” year events. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic The Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Tides--Mathematical models Sea level--Mathematical models Climatic changes Oceanography FOS Earth and related environmental sciences |
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Tides--Mathematical models Sea level--Mathematical models Climatic changes Oceanography FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Radley M. Little, Christopher M. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Strauss, Benjamin H. Tebaldi, Claudia Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
topic_facet |
Tides--Mathematical models Sea level--Mathematical models Climatic changes Oceanography FOS Earth and related environmental sciences |
description |
Sea‐level rise due to both climate change and non‐climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea‐level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea‐level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site‐to‐site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non‐climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1‐in‐10” and “1‐in‐100” year events. |
format |
Text |
author |
Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Radley M. Little, Christopher M. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Strauss, Benjamin H. Tebaldi, Claudia |
author_facet |
Kopp, Robert E. Horton, Radley M. Little, Christopher M. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Strauss, Benjamin H. Tebaldi, Claudia |
author_sort |
Kopp, Robert E. |
title |
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
title_short |
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
title_full |
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
title_sort |
probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites |
publisher |
Columbia University |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000239 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-rk1k-sk45 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ef000239 |
_version_ |
1766274890102472704 |