Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis ...
We analyze, using Poisson regressions, the main climate influences on North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The analysis is performed using not only various time series of basin‐wide storm counts but also various series of regional clusters, taking into account shortcomings of the hurricane data...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
Columbia University
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-adr5-6c89 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-adr5-6c89 |
| Summary: | We analyze, using Poisson regressions, the main climate influences on North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The analysis is performed using not only various time series of basin‐wide storm counts but also various series of regional clusters, taking into account shortcomings of the hurricane database through estimates of missing storms. The analysis confirms that tropical cyclones forming in different regions of the Atlantic are susceptible to different climate influences. We also investigate the presence of trends in these various time series, both at the basin‐wide and cluster levels, and show that, even after accounting for possible missing storms, there remains an upward trend in the eastern part of the basin and a downward trend in the western part. Using model selection algorithms, we show that the best model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the recent past is constructed using Atlantic sea surface temperature and upper tropospheric temperature, while for the 1878–2015 period, the chosen ... |
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