Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ...
The impact of anthropogenic forcings on tropical North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity (PI) is evaluated in Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for the period 1958–2005. Eleven models are examined, but only seven models have a forced response that is distinguishable from internal v...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 |
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ftdatacite:10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 2024-10-13T14:09:18+00:00 Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... Trenary, L. DelSole, T. Camargo, Suzana J. Tippett, Michael K. 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 unknown Columbia University https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081725 Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases Text article-journal Articles ScholarlyArticle 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs7110.1029/2018gl081725 2024-10-01T11:49:36Z The impact of anthropogenic forcings on tropical North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity (PI) is evaluated in Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for the period 1958–2005. Eleven models are examined, but only seven models have a forced response that is distinguishable from internal variability. The use of discriminant analysis to optimize detectability does not yield a clear, common climate change signal. Of the seven models with a significant response, one has a negative linear trend while two have a positive linear trend. The trend in PI is not even consistent among reanalyses, although this difference is not statistically significant because of large uncertainties. Furthermore, estimates of PI internal variability have significantly different variances among different reanalysis products. These disagreements between models, reanalysis products, and between models and reanalyses, in conjunction with relatively large uncertainties, highlight the difficulty of detecting and attributing ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DataCite |
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unknown |
topic |
Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases |
spellingShingle |
Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases Trenary, L. DelSole, T. Camargo, Suzana J. Tippett, Michael K. Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... |
topic_facet |
Climatology Hurricanes Climatic changes Greenhouse gases |
description |
The impact of anthropogenic forcings on tropical North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity (PI) is evaluated in Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for the period 1958–2005. Eleven models are examined, but only seven models have a forced response that is distinguishable from internal variability. The use of discriminant analysis to optimize detectability does not yield a clear, common climate change signal. Of the seven models with a significant response, one has a negative linear trend while two have a positive linear trend. The trend in PI is not even consistent among reanalyses, although this difference is not statistically significant because of large uncertainties. Furthermore, estimates of PI internal variability have significantly different variances among different reanalysis products. These disagreements between models, reanalysis products, and between models and reanalyses, in conjunction with relatively large uncertainties, highlight the difficulty of detecting and attributing ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Trenary, L. DelSole, T. Camargo, Suzana J. Tippett, Michael K. |
author_facet |
Trenary, L. DelSole, T. Camargo, Suzana J. Tippett, Michael K. |
author_sort |
Trenary, L. |
title |
Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... |
title_short |
Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... |
title_full |
Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... |
title_fullStr |
Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable? ... |
title_sort |
are midtwentieth century forced changes in north atlantic hurricane potential intensity detectable? ... |
publisher |
Columbia University |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs71 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081725 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-6k5e-rs7110.1029/2018gl081725 |
_version_ |
1812816189873717248 |