Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison.
The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted sim...
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ftdatacite:10.7892/boris.63550 2023-05-15T16:41:04+02:00 Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. Weaver, Andrew J. Sedláček, Jan Eby, Michael Alexander, Kaitlin Crespin, Elisabeth Fichefet, Thierry Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle Joos, Fortunat Kawamiya, Michio Matsumoto, Katsumi Steinacher, Marco Tachiiri, Kaoru Tokos, Kathy Yoshimori, Masakazu Zickfeld, Kirsten 2012 application/pdf https://dx.doi.org/10.7892/boris.63550 https://boris.unibe.ch/63550/ en eng American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology Text article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2012 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.63550 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming. Text Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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English |
topic |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology |
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530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology Weaver, Andrew J. Sedláček, Jan Eby, Michael Alexander, Kaitlin Crespin, Elisabeth Fichefet, Thierry Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle Joos, Fortunat Kawamiya, Michio Matsumoto, Katsumi Steinacher, Marco Tachiiri, Kaoru Tokos, Kathy Yoshimori, Masakazu Zickfeld, Kirsten Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. |
topic_facet |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology |
description |
The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming. |
format |
Text |
author |
Weaver, Andrew J. Sedláček, Jan Eby, Michael Alexander, Kaitlin Crespin, Elisabeth Fichefet, Thierry Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle Joos, Fortunat Kawamiya, Michio Matsumoto, Katsumi Steinacher, Marco Tachiiri, Kaoru Tokos, Kathy Yoshimori, Masakazu Zickfeld, Kirsten |
author_facet |
Weaver, Andrew J. Sedláček, Jan Eby, Michael Alexander, Kaitlin Crespin, Elisabeth Fichefet, Thierry Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle Joos, Fortunat Kawamiya, Michio Matsumoto, Katsumi Steinacher, Marco Tachiiri, Kaoru Tokos, Kathy Yoshimori, Masakazu Zickfeld, Kirsten |
author_sort |
Weaver, Andrew J. |
title |
Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. |
title_short |
Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. |
title_full |
Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. |
title_fullStr |
Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. |
title_sort |
stability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation: a model intercomparison. |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7892/boris.63550 https://boris.unibe.ch/63550/ |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.63550 |
_version_ |
1766031514995261440 |