Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is la...
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ftdatacite:10.7282/t3154kvw 2023-05-15T17:51:25+02:00 Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change Cheung, William W. L. Frölicher, Thomas L. Asch, Rebecca G. Jones, Miranda C. Pinsky, Malin L. Reygondeau, Gabriel Rodgers, Keith B. Rykaczewski, Ryan R. Stock, Charles Sarmiento, Jorge L. Watson, James R. 2016 application/pdf https://dx.doi.org/10.7282/t3154kvw https://scholarship.libraries.rutgers.edu/esploro/outputs/acceptedManuscript/991031549865404646 en eng Rutgers University Open Fisheries Marine resources Multi-model ensembles Projection Uncertainty Climate Change article-journal ScholarlyArticle Text Accepted manuscript 2016 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.7282/t3154kvw 2022-03-10T11:01:47Z The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled Dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions. Text Ocean acidification DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
English |
topic |
Fisheries Marine resources Multi-model ensembles Projection Uncertainty Climate Change |
spellingShingle |
Fisheries Marine resources Multi-model ensembles Projection Uncertainty Climate Change Cheung, William W. L. Frölicher, Thomas L. Asch, Rebecca G. Jones, Miranda C. Pinsky, Malin L. Reygondeau, Gabriel Rodgers, Keith B. Rykaczewski, Ryan R. Stock, Charles Sarmiento, Jorge L. Watson, James R. Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
topic_facet |
Fisheries Marine resources Multi-model ensembles Projection Uncertainty Climate Change |
description |
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled Dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions. |
format |
Text |
author |
Cheung, William W. L. Frölicher, Thomas L. Asch, Rebecca G. Jones, Miranda C. Pinsky, Malin L. Reygondeau, Gabriel Rodgers, Keith B. Rykaczewski, Ryan R. Stock, Charles Sarmiento, Jorge L. Watson, James R. |
author_facet |
Cheung, William W. L. Frölicher, Thomas L. Asch, Rebecca G. Jones, Miranda C. Pinsky, Malin L. Reygondeau, Gabriel Rodgers, Keith B. Rykaczewski, Ryan R. Stock, Charles Sarmiento, Jorge L. Watson, James R. |
author_sort |
Cheung, William W. L. |
title |
Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
title_short |
Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
title_full |
Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : Building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
title_sort |
building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change : building confidence in projections of living marine resources to climate change |
publisher |
Rutgers University |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.7282/t3154kvw https://scholarship.libraries.rutgers.edu/esploro/outputs/acceptedManuscript/991031549865404646 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_rights |
Open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7282/t3154kvw |
_version_ |
1766158568627634176 |