Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps
Abstract Background The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study a...
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4570808 2023-05-15T17:06:23+02:00 Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps Hotta, Masanobu Ikutaro Tsuyama Nakao, Katsuhiro Ozeki, Masaaki Higa, Motoki Kominami, Yuji Hamada, Takashi Matsui, Tetsuya Masatsugu Yasuda Tanaka, Nobuyuki 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4570808 https://springernature.figshare.com/collections/Modeling_future_wildlife_habitat_suitability_serious_climate_change_impacts_on_the_potential_distribution_of_the_Rock_Ptarmigan_Lagopus_muta_japonica_in_Japan_s_northern_Alps/4570808 unknown Figshare https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8 CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Genetics FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences Collection article 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4570808 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Abstract Background The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081–2100 as future climate conditions. Results The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan’s northern Alps (36.25–36.5°N, 137.5–137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. Conclusions Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081–2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy. Article in Journal/Newspaper Lagopus muta rock ptarmigan DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Genetics FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Genetics FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences Hotta, Masanobu Ikutaro Tsuyama Nakao, Katsuhiro Ozeki, Masaaki Higa, Motoki Kominami, Yuji Hamada, Takashi Matsui, Tetsuya Masatsugu Yasuda Tanaka, Nobuyuki Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps |
topic_facet |
Genetics FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences |
description |
Abstract Background The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081–2100 as future climate conditions. Results The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan’s northern Alps (36.25–36.5°N, 137.5–137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. Conclusions Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081–2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hotta, Masanobu Ikutaro Tsuyama Nakao, Katsuhiro Ozeki, Masaaki Higa, Motoki Kominami, Yuji Hamada, Takashi Matsui, Tetsuya Masatsugu Yasuda Tanaka, Nobuyuki |
author_facet |
Hotta, Masanobu Ikutaro Tsuyama Nakao, Katsuhiro Ozeki, Masaaki Higa, Motoki Kominami, Yuji Hamada, Takashi Matsui, Tetsuya Masatsugu Yasuda Tanaka, Nobuyuki |
author_sort |
Hotta, Masanobu |
title |
Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps |
title_short |
Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps |
title_full |
Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps |
title_fullStr |
Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps |
title_sort |
modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the rock ptarmigan lagopus muta japonica in japan’s northern alps |
publisher |
Figshare |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4570808 https://springernature.figshare.com/collections/Modeling_future_wildlife_habitat_suitability_serious_climate_change_impacts_on_the_potential_distribution_of_the_Rock_Ptarmigan_Lagopus_muta_japonica_in_Japan_s_northern_Alps/4570808 |
genre |
Lagopus muta rock ptarmigan |
genre_facet |
Lagopus muta rock ptarmigan |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4570808 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8 |
_version_ |
1766061509287346176 |