Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate
Abstract Background Caribou in the Western Arctic Herd undertake one of the longest, remaining intact migrations of terrestrial mammals in the world. They are also the most important subsistence resource for many northern rural residents, who rely on the caribouâ s migratory movements to bring them...
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4531103 2023-05-15T14:55:21+02:00 Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate A. Baltensperger K. Joly 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4531103 https://springernature.figshare.com/collections/Using_seasonal_landscape_models_to_predict_space_use_and_migratory_patterns_of_an_arctic_ungulate/4531103 unknown Figshare https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40462-019-0162-8 CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology FOS Biological sciences 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Collection article 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4531103 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40462-019-0162-8 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Abstract Background Caribou in the Western Arctic Herd undertake one of the longest, remaining intact migrations of terrestrial mammals in the world. They are also the most important subsistence resource for many northern rural residents, who rely on the caribouâ s migratory movements to bring them near for harvest. Migratory geography has never been static, but subsistence harvesters have reported recent shifts in migration away from areas where they traditionally occurred. The reasons behind these changes are not well-understood, but may be related to rapid climate change and anthropogenic disturbances. Methods To predict changes in distribution and shifting migratory areas over the past decade, we used GPS telemetry data from adult females to develop predictive ecological niche models of caribou across northwestern Alaska. We employed the machine-learning algorithm, TreeNet, to analyze interactive, multivariate relationships between telemetry locations and 37 spatial environmental layers and to predict the distributions of caribou during spring, calving season, insect-harassment season, late summer, fall, and winter from 2009 to 2017. Model results were analyzed to identify regions of repeated predicted use, quantify mean longitude, predict land cover selection, and track migratory changes over time. Results Distribution models accurately predicted caribou at a spatially-explicit, 500-m scale. Model analyses identified migratory areas that shifted annually across the region, but which predicted 4 main areas of repeated use. Niche models were defined largely by non-linear relationships with coastally-influenced, climatic variables, especially snow-free date, potential evapo-transpiration, growing season length, proximity to sea ice, winter precipitation and fall temperature. Proximity to roads and communities were also important and we predicted caribou to generally occur more than 20â 100â km from these features. Conclusions Western Arctic Herd caribou were predicted to occur in warmer, snow-free and treeless areas that may provide conditions conducive for efficient travel and foraging. Rapidly changing seasonal climates and coastal influences that determine forage availability, and human impediments that slow or divert movements are related to geographically and phenologically dynamic migration patterns that may periodically shift caribou away from traditional harvest areas. An enhanced understanding of the geographic behavior of caribou over time could inform traditional harvests and help conserve important Western Arctic caribou migratory areas. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Alaska DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology FOS Biological sciences 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified |
spellingShingle |
59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology FOS Biological sciences 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified A. Baltensperger K. Joly Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
topic_facet |
59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology FOS Biological sciences 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified |
description |
Abstract Background Caribou in the Western Arctic Herd undertake one of the longest, remaining intact migrations of terrestrial mammals in the world. They are also the most important subsistence resource for many northern rural residents, who rely on the caribouâ s migratory movements to bring them near for harvest. Migratory geography has never been static, but subsistence harvesters have reported recent shifts in migration away from areas where they traditionally occurred. The reasons behind these changes are not well-understood, but may be related to rapid climate change and anthropogenic disturbances. Methods To predict changes in distribution and shifting migratory areas over the past decade, we used GPS telemetry data from adult females to develop predictive ecological niche models of caribou across northwestern Alaska. We employed the machine-learning algorithm, TreeNet, to analyze interactive, multivariate relationships between telemetry locations and 37 spatial environmental layers and to predict the distributions of caribou during spring, calving season, insect-harassment season, late summer, fall, and winter from 2009 to 2017. Model results were analyzed to identify regions of repeated predicted use, quantify mean longitude, predict land cover selection, and track migratory changes over time. Results Distribution models accurately predicted caribou at a spatially-explicit, 500-m scale. Model analyses identified migratory areas that shifted annually across the region, but which predicted 4 main areas of repeated use. Niche models were defined largely by non-linear relationships with coastally-influenced, climatic variables, especially snow-free date, potential evapo-transpiration, growing season length, proximity to sea ice, winter precipitation and fall temperature. Proximity to roads and communities were also important and we predicted caribou to generally occur more than 20â 100â km from these features. Conclusions Western Arctic Herd caribou were predicted to occur in warmer, snow-free and treeless areas that may provide conditions conducive for efficient travel and foraging. Rapidly changing seasonal climates and coastal influences that determine forage availability, and human impediments that slow or divert movements are related to geographically and phenologically dynamic migration patterns that may periodically shift caribou away from traditional harvest areas. An enhanced understanding of the geographic behavior of caribou over time could inform traditional harvests and help conserve important Western Arctic caribou migratory areas. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Baltensperger K. Joly |
author_facet |
A. Baltensperger K. Joly |
author_sort |
A. Baltensperger |
title |
Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
title_short |
Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
title_full |
Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
title_fullStr |
Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
title_sort |
using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate |
publisher |
Figshare |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4531103 https://springernature.figshare.com/collections/Using_seasonal_landscape_models_to_predict_space_use_and_migratory_patterns_of_an_arctic_ungulate/4531103 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice Alaska |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40462-019-0162-8 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4531103 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40462-019-0162-8 |
_version_ |
1766327153570349056 |