Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf
Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary “...
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3295580 2023-05-15T16:08:19+02:00 Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf Hoop, Julie M. Van Der Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. 2016 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3295580 https://figshare.com/collections/Absolute_probability_estimates_of_lethal_vessel_strikes_to_North_Atlantic_right_whales_in_Roseway_Basin_Scotian_Shelf/3295580 unknown Figshare https://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 CC-BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us CC-BY Environmental Science Ecology FOS Biological sciences Collection article 2016 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3295580 https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary “area to be avoided” (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775–2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2–16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Environmental Science Ecology FOS Biological sciences |
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Environmental Science Ecology FOS Biological sciences Hoop, Julie M. Van Der Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
topic_facet |
Environmental Science Ecology FOS Biological sciences |
description |
Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary “area to be avoided” (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775–2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2–16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hoop, Julie M. Van Der Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. |
author_facet |
Hoop, Julie M. Van Der Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. |
author_sort |
Hoop, Julie M. Van Der |
title |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_short |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_full |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_fullStr |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_sort |
absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to north atlantic right whales in roseway basin, scotian shelf |
publisher |
Figshare |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3295580 https://figshare.com/collections/Absolute_probability_estimates_of_lethal_vessel_strikes_to_North_Atlantic_right_whales_in_Roseway_Basin_Scotian_Shelf/3295580 |
genre |
Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
genre_facet |
Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 |
op_rights |
CC-BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3295580 https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 |
_version_ |
1766404380943187968 |