Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement ...

• Main Authors: Wang, Fang, Ge, Quansheng, Chen, Deliang, Luterbacher, Jürg, Tokarska, Katarzyna B., Hao, Zhixin
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Taylor & Francis 2018
• Subjects: Sociology; FOS Sociology; Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified; Ecology; FOS Biological sciences; Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified; Inorganic Chemistry; FOS Chemical sciences; Science Policy; Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6817997; https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Global_and_regional_climate_responses_to_national-committed_emission_reductions_under_the_Paris_agreement/6817997

To stabilize global mean temperature change within the range of 1.5–2.0°C in accordance with the Paris Agreement, countries worldwide submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions with their proposed emission reductions. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation would be in response to the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution emission efforts. This study quantifies the global and regional temperature and precipitation changes in response to the updated Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios, using simulations of 14 Fifth Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project models. Our results show that Intended Nationally Determined Contribution emissions would lead to a global mean warming of 1.4°C (1.3–1.7°C) in 2030 and 3.2°C (2.6–4.3°C) in 2100, above the preindustrial level (the 1850–1900 average). Spatially, the Arctic is projected to have the largest warming, 2.5 and 3 times the global average for 2030 and ...