Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response
A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertain...
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134.v1 2023-05-15T17:58:06+02:00 Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response Lowe, Jason A. Bernie, Daniel 2018 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134.v1 https://rs.figshare.com/articles/Supplementary_Material_from_The_impact_of_Earth_system_feedbacks_on_carbon_budgets_and_climate_response/5993134/1 unknown The Royal Society https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0263 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY 40308 Palaeontology incl. Palynology FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Text article-journal Journal contribution ScholarlyArticle 2018 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134.v1 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0263 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO 2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO 2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO 2 and 150 GtCO 2 , respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. Text permafrost DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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40308 Palaeontology incl. Palynology FOS Earth and related environmental sciences |
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40308 Palaeontology incl. Palynology FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Lowe, Jason A. Bernie, Daniel Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
topic_facet |
40308 Palaeontology incl. Palynology FOS Earth and related environmental sciences |
description |
A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO 2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO 2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO 2 and 150 GtCO 2 , respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. |
format |
Text |
author |
Lowe, Jason A. Bernie, Daniel |
author_facet |
Lowe, Jason A. Bernie, Daniel |
author_sort |
Lowe, Jason A. |
title |
Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
title_short |
Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
title_full |
Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
title_fullStr |
Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
title_full_unstemmed |
Supplementary Material from The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
title_sort |
supplementary material from the impact of earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134.v1 https://rs.figshare.com/articles/Supplementary_Material_from_The_impact_of_Earth_system_feedbacks_on_carbon_budgets_and_climate_response/5993134/1 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0263 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134.v1 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0263 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993134 |
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