An ice-obligate seabird responds to a multi-decadal decline in Arctic sea ice - population matrix model ...

• Main Authors: Divoky, George, JAN, Pierre-Loup, Barbraud, Christophe
• Format: Dataset
• Language: unknown
• Published: figshare 2024
• Subjects: Marine and estuarine ecology incl. marine ichthyology; Population ecology; Climate change processes; Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation; Arctic cod; Arctic; Black guillemot; Boreogadus saida; Cepphus grylle; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25337785; https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/An_ice-obligate_seabird_responds_to_a_multi-decadal_decline_in_Arctic_sea_ice_-_population_matrix_model/25337785

The Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time-series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region’s marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper-trophic level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt’s black guillemot ( Cepphus grylle mandtii ), an ice-obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida ), the primary forage fish of the ice-associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models and perturbation analysis we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980-2019 for the individually-marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from <20 to ...