Tundra conservation challenged by forest expansion in a complex mountainous treeline ecotone as revealed by spatially explicit tree aboveground biomass modeling ...

• Main Authors: Kruse, Stefan, Shevtsova, Iuliia, Heim, Birgit, Pestryakova, Luidmila A., Zakharov, Evgeniy S., Herzschuh, Ulrike
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Taylor & Francis 2023
• Subjects: Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified; Ecology; FOS Biological sciences; Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified; Cancer; Plant Biology; Chukotka; Subarctic; Tundra; Siberia
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23635848; https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Tundra_conservation_challenged_by_forest_expansion_in_a_complex_mountainous_treeline_ecotone_as_revealed_by_spatially_explicit_tree_aboveground_biomass_modeling/23635848

The subarctic forest tundra transition zone is one of the most vulnerable ecological regions worldwide and susceptible to climate change. Forest changes could lead to biodiversity losses when tundra areas become colonized. However, the impact of complex landscapes with barriers and channels for seed dispersal is highly understudied. Hence, we investigated potential tree aboveground biomass (AGB) change in mountainous central Chukotka (Siberia) with the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model Larix vegetation simulator (LAVESI). In a climate sensitivity study, we simulate forest dynamics until 3000 CE for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with and without hypothetical cooling after 2300 CE to twentieth-century levels. The current state and spatiotemporal dynamics of tree AGB are validated against field and satellite-derived data. Our results suggest densification of existing tree stands and a lagged forest expansion depending on the distance to the current tree line (~39 percent of the ...