Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality
Lake Simcoe has undergone eutrophication and hypoxia since the 1960s. Climate change, leading to enhanced summer thermal stratification, has been identified as a key stressor. In this study, we modeled the impacts of climate change on hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry in Lake Simcoe by applying a 1-...
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737.v1 2023-05-15T17:34:33+02:00 Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality Bolkhari, Hadiseh Boegman, Leon Smith, Ralph E. H. 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737.v1 https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Simulated_impacts_of_climate_change_on_Lake_Simcoe_water_quality/17142737/1 unknown Taylor & Francis https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1969190 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Physiology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences Journal contribution article-journal Text ScholarlyArticle 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737.v1 https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1969190 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737 2022-02-08T16:15:47Z Lake Simcoe has undergone eutrophication and hypoxia since the 1960s. Climate change, leading to enhanced summer thermal stratification, has been identified as a key stressor. In this study, we modeled the impacts of climate change on hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry in Lake Simcoe by applying a 1-dimensional (vertical) model forced with A2 and B1 scenario outputs from a global climate model over 2000–2100. The model was calibrated in 2008 and validated in 2009, with maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of modelled temperature between 1.5 and 3.0 °C and dissolved oxygen RMSE between 0.5 and 2.5 mg L −1 . Phytoplankton chlorophyll a was simulated with RMSE between 1.25 µg L −1 (large diatoms) and ∼0.5 µg L −1 (other groups). Interannual variability in spring water temperature and length of stratification were related to changes in the North Atlantic and Artic Oscillation indices, respectively. Under A2 and B1 forcing, the duration of stratification will increase by 45 and 38 days in summer between spring and fall turnover, respectively. The extended stratified period leads to a reduction in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen from 3–7 to <3 mg L −1 , thereby reducing the quality of cold-water fish habitat and increasing internal phosphorus loading from the benthos. These internal loads, combined with increased water temperatures, lead to increased cyanobacteria concentrations, beginning around 2070. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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unknown |
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Physiology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Physiology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences Bolkhari, Hadiseh Boegman, Leon Smith, Ralph E. H. Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality |
topic_facet |
Physiology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences |
description |
Lake Simcoe has undergone eutrophication and hypoxia since the 1960s. Climate change, leading to enhanced summer thermal stratification, has been identified as a key stressor. In this study, we modeled the impacts of climate change on hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry in Lake Simcoe by applying a 1-dimensional (vertical) model forced with A2 and B1 scenario outputs from a global climate model over 2000–2100. The model was calibrated in 2008 and validated in 2009, with maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of modelled temperature between 1.5 and 3.0 °C and dissolved oxygen RMSE between 0.5 and 2.5 mg L −1 . Phytoplankton chlorophyll a was simulated with RMSE between 1.25 µg L −1 (large diatoms) and ∼0.5 µg L −1 (other groups). Interannual variability in spring water temperature and length of stratification were related to changes in the North Atlantic and Artic Oscillation indices, respectively. Under A2 and B1 forcing, the duration of stratification will increase by 45 and 38 days in summer between spring and fall turnover, respectively. The extended stratified period leads to a reduction in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen from 3–7 to <3 mg L −1 , thereby reducing the quality of cold-water fish habitat and increasing internal phosphorus loading from the benthos. These internal loads, combined with increased water temperatures, lead to increased cyanobacteria concentrations, beginning around 2070. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bolkhari, Hadiseh Boegman, Leon Smith, Ralph E. H. |
author_facet |
Bolkhari, Hadiseh Boegman, Leon Smith, Ralph E. H. |
author_sort |
Bolkhari, Hadiseh |
title |
Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality |
title_short |
Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality |
title_full |
Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality |
title_fullStr |
Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulated impacts of climate change on Lake Simcoe water quality |
title_sort |
simulated impacts of climate change on lake simcoe water quality |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737.v1 https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Simulated_impacts_of_climate_change_on_Lake_Simcoe_water_quality/17142737/1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1969190 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737.v1 https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2021.1969190 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.17142737 |
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1766133421350846464 |