Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada
Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective...
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2021
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 2023-05-15T17:55:33+02:00 Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada Perreault, Julie Fortier, Richard Molson, John W. 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Numerical_modelling_of_permafrost_dynamics_under_climate_change_and_evolving_ground_surface_conditions_application_to_an_instrumented_permafrost_mound_at_Umiujaq_Nunavik_Qu_bec_Canada/15062738/1 unknown Taylor & Francis https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Evolutionary Biology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences Journal contribution article-journal Text ScholarlyArticle 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738 2022-02-08T18:05:53Z Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics. Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper permafrost Thermokarst Umiujaq Nunavik DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Canada Nunavik Umiujaq ENVELOPE(-76.549,-76.549,56.553,56.553) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Evolutionary Biology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Evolutionary Biology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences Perreault, Julie Fortier, Richard Molson, John W. Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
topic_facet |
Evolutionary Biology FOS Biological sciences 59999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Earth and related environmental sciences Ecology 69999 Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry FOS Chemical sciences |
description |
Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics. |
format |
Other Non-Article Part of Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Perreault, Julie Fortier, Richard Molson, John W. |
author_facet |
Perreault, Julie Fortier, Richard Molson, John W. |
author_sort |
Perreault, Julie |
title |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_short |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_full |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_fullStr |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_full_unstemmed |
Numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada |
title_sort |
numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics under climate change and evolving ground surface conditions: application to an instrumented permafrost mound at umiujaq, nunavik (québec), canada |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 https://tandf.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Numerical_modelling_of_permafrost_dynamics_under_climate_change_and_evolving_ground_surface_conditions_application_to_an_instrumented_permafrost_mound_at_Umiujaq_Nunavik_Qu_bec_Canada/15062738/1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-76.549,-76.549,56.553,56.553) |
geographic |
Canada Nunavik Umiujaq |
geographic_facet |
Canada Nunavik Umiujaq |
genre |
permafrost Thermokarst Umiujaq Nunavik |
genre_facet |
permafrost Thermokarst Umiujaq Nunavik |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738.v1 https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.15062738 |
_version_ |
1766163511204904960 |