Expected distribution of ten vulnerable species within Western France under climate change

• Main Authors: Dupont-Doaré, Ceridwen, Alagador, Diogo
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: figshare 2020
• Subjects: 50202 Conservation and Biodiversity; FOS Biological sciences; 50101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change; FOS Earth and related environmental sciences; 50204 Environmental Impact Assessment; 50205 Environmental Management; Accipiter gentilis
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.11720223; https://figshare.com/articles/Expected_distribution_of_ten_vulnerable_species_from_Western_France_under_climate_change/11720223

Changes in distributions of ten vulnerable species from Western France were determined, between 2020 and 2050, under RCP8.5. After using several bioclimatic niche models filtered by species-specific habitat affinities, Zonation software was employed to identify the areas most likely to best assist the persitence of species up to 2050. Here, unlike the most common implementations, Zonation was used for each species a time, and at a large temporal resolution basis (annual analyses) using the ‘spatio-temporal interactions module’. In practice, instead of providing all the suitability maps from 2020 to 2050 to Zonation, which would have resulted into a unique output map, the experimental approach implemented undertook Zonation runs for pairs of consecutive time-periods, thus allowing the control of species area-ranking through time (i.e. 2020-2021, 2021-2022, etc.). This resulted in 30 maps corresponding to plausible trajectories of (climate and land-cover) suitable area for each species. Those maps were combined to better understand species predicted dynamics. Acr: Anas crecca; Age: Accipiter gentilis; Bca: Bufo calamita; Elo: Elaphe longissima; Mbe: Myotis bechsteinii; Mem: Myotis emarginatus; Osc: Otus scops; Pca: Picus canus; Rte: Rana temporaria; Tcr: Triturus cristatus .