21st century global and regional surface temperature projections ...
<!--!introduction!--> Recent studies have been sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle....
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | unknown |
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GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
2023
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-3647 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5020895 |
| Summary: | <!--!introduction!--> Recent studies have been sparking concerns about the impending arrival of “tipping points” later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface temperature trends in three target latitudinal regions: the Arctic Circle, Tropics, and the Antarctic Circle. We show that global warming is accelerating unevenly across the planet, with the Arctic warming at more than three times the average rate of our world. We also analyzed the reliability of latitude-dependent surface temperature simulations from a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and their multi-model mean (MMM) by comparing their outputs to observational data sets. We selected the best-performing models based on their statistical abilities to reproduce historical, latitude-dependent values adapted from these data sets. The surface temperature projections were calculated from ensemble simulations of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) by the selected CMIP6 models. ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... |
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