Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ...
<!--!introduction!--> The February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak (CAO) featured historic cold and other winter hazards over a two-week period across the Central United States (US), leading to major socioeconomic impacts. Leading up to the event, model forecasts diverged on the evolutio...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Format: | Conference Object |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-3468 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019434 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.57757/iugg23-3468 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.57757/iugg23-3468 2023-07-23T04:19:04+02:00 Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... Furtado, Jason Millin, Oliver 2023 https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-3468 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019434 unknown GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 Article ConferencePaper Oral 2023 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-3468 2023-07-03T21:00:06Z <!--!introduction!--> The February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak (CAO) featured historic cold and other winter hazards over a two-week period across the Central United States (US), leading to major socioeconomic impacts. Leading up to the event, model forecasts diverged on the evolution of critical features that ultimately affected their forecast accuracy. In particular, the CAO event was preceded by two wave breaks at high latitudes -- one in the East Siberian Sea (2-4 February 2021) and another in the Labrador Sea (9-11 February 2021). In this talk, we illustrate how these wave breaks were important for the ultimate evolution and intensity of the CAO in subseasonal model forecasts. We use a combination of ERA5 and realtime forecasts from two models from the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database for the analysis: ECMWF and NCEP. We select model initialization dates with 2-3 weeks lead time to isolate ensemble members that simulated the wave breaks well and poorly and then ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... Conference Object East Siberian Sea Labrador Sea DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) East Siberian Sea ENVELOPE(166.000,166.000,74.000,74.000) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
description |
<!--!introduction!--> The February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak (CAO) featured historic cold and other winter hazards over a two-week period across the Central United States (US), leading to major socioeconomic impacts. Leading up to the event, model forecasts diverged on the evolution of critical features that ultimately affected their forecast accuracy. In particular, the CAO event was preceded by two wave breaks at high latitudes -- one in the East Siberian Sea (2-4 February 2021) and another in the Labrador Sea (9-11 February 2021). In this talk, we illustrate how these wave breaks were important for the ultimate evolution and intensity of the CAO in subseasonal model forecasts. We use a combination of ERA5 and realtime forecasts from two models from the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database for the analysis: ECMWF and NCEP. We select model initialization dates with 2-3 weeks lead time to isolate ensemble members that simulated the wave breaks well and poorly and then ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Furtado, Jason Millin, Oliver |
spellingShingle |
Furtado, Jason Millin, Oliver Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... |
author_facet |
Furtado, Jason Millin, Oliver |
author_sort |
Furtado, Jason |
title |
Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... |
title_short |
Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... |
title_full |
Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... |
title_fullStr |
Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Importance of Tropospheric Wave Breaking for Subseasonal Forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak ... |
title_sort |
importance of tropospheric wave breaking for subseasonal forecasts of the february 2021 north american cold air outbreak ... |
publisher |
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-3468 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5019434 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(166.000,166.000,74.000,74.000) |
geographic |
East Siberian Sea |
geographic_facet |
East Siberian Sea |
genre |
East Siberian Sea Labrador Sea |
genre_facet |
East Siberian Sea Labrador Sea |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-3468 |
_version_ |
1772181864221507584 |