Emergent Constraint for Future Decline in Arctic Phytoplankton Concentration ...

• Main Author: Noh, Kyung Min
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences 2023
• Subjects: Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Phytoplankton
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-2276; https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018488

<!--!introduction!--> During recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced continuous warming and freshening which influence the biogeochemical states such as nutrient supply, light availability, chlorophyll, and productivity. Although the Arctic marine productivity is projected to increase by expanding the open ocean and increasing chlorophyll concentration, uncertainties of chlorophyll and nutrients may distract the fidelity of productivity in current earth system models (ESMs). Here, using the 26 ESMs participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6), we analyze the existing uncertainty in the Arctic chlorophyll projections. The uncertainty in the Arctic chlorophyll projections in CMIP6 ESMs becomes greater than that in CMIP5 ESMs because of increasing uncertainty in background nitrate. Especially, the large uncertainty in chlorophyll changes among ESMs is associated with the different seasonality of nutrient limitation. A significant relationship between background ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ...