Towards physically consistent sea level rise storylines for the United Kingdom ...

• Main Authors: Palmer, Matt, Gregory, Jonathan, Harrison, Benjamin, Lowe, Jason, Weeks, Jennifer
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences 2023
• Subjects: Antarctic; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-2029; https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5018845

<!--!introduction!--> There is increasing awareness of the need for comprehensive information on potential future sea level rise to inform adaptation planning and coastal decision making. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) states that global mean sea level (GMSL) rise approaching 5 m by 2150, and more than 15 m by 2300, cannot be ruled out under high greenhouse gas emissions due to uncertainty in ice sheet processes. However, current guidance on high-end sea level rise for the United Kingdom (UK) advises users to plan for up to 1.9 m of sea-level rise by 2100 with no explicit consideration of long-term commitment. This work aims to provide a framework to accommodate updated high-end sea level rise guidance that extends to 2300. We combine the Monte Carlo methods used in the latest national sea level projections (UKCP18) with recently published projections of Antarctic ice mass loss to develop a small set of physically consistent storylines of local sea level rise. The storylines span the range of ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ...