North Atlantic subpolar gyre provides downstream ocean predictability ...

• Main Authors: Fan, Hongdou, Borchert, Leonard, Brune, Sebastian, Koul, Vimal, Baehr, Johanna
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences 2023
• Subjects: Nordic Seas; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-1951; https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017588

<!--!introduction!--> The poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean provides oceanic and continental climate predictability on decadal time scale. However, whether the signals from Subpolar Gyre of the North Atlantic (SPG) manifest in its downstream decadal prediction remains unclear. In this study, we assess the decadal prediction of temperature and salinity in the Nordic Seas, and investigate the role of poleward progression of signals from the subpolar gyre (SPG) in the MPI-ESM-LR1.2 decadal prediction system. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) prediction skill of salinity in the Nordic Seas is considerably higher than ACC of temperature. Subsurface temperature is skillfully predicted 2 years in advance, while subsurface salinity is skillfully predicted up to 8 years in advance. The high ACC of salinity propagates from eastern SPG into the Nordic Seas, benefiting from the slow northward ocean propagation which is modulated by the SPG. Our results suggest that ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ...