Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ...
<!--!introduction!--> Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyse the overturning pathways in 27 CMIP6 models to assess their impact o...
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GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
2023
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ftdatacite:10.57757/iugg23-1606 2023-07-23T04:20:26+02:00 Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... Baker, Jonathan Bell, Mike Jackson, Laura Renshaw, Richard Vallis, Geoffrey Watson, Andrew Wood, Richard 2023 https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-1606 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017998 unknown GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 Article ConferencePaper Oral 2023 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-1606 2023-07-03T16:19:41Z <!--!introduction!--> Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyse the overturning pathways in 27 CMIP6 models to assess their impact on this weakening. Models with a larger pathway of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Indo-Pacific Ocean that is upwelled by diffusion, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean, weaken most in response to warming. The historical magnitude of this Indo-Pacific pathway is a stronger predictor of AMOC weakening than the historical AMOC strength. The strong relationship between this pathway and AMOC weakening is due, in part, to the historical magnitude of this pathway acting as an upper limit on the magnitude of its reduction. Decreases in this pathway are related to decreases in the Atlantic diffusive upwelling pathway, whereas the pathway that upwells via the Southern Ocean winds remains relatively steady. An ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... Conference Object North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Southern Ocean DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Southern Ocean Pacific |
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<!--!introduction!--> Future projections indicate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken and shoal in response to global warming, but models disagree widely over the amount of weakening. We analyse the overturning pathways in 27 CMIP6 models to assess their impact on this weakening. Models with a larger pathway of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Indo-Pacific Ocean that is upwelled by diffusion, but does not later upwell in the Southern Ocean, weaken most in response to warming. The historical magnitude of this Indo-Pacific pathway is a stronger predictor of AMOC weakening than the historical AMOC strength. The strong relationship between this pathway and AMOC weakening is due, in part, to the historical magnitude of this pathway acting as an upper limit on the magnitude of its reduction. Decreases in this pathway are related to decreases in the Atlantic diffusive upwelling pathway, whereas the pathway that upwells via the Southern Ocean winds remains relatively steady. An ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Baker, Jonathan Bell, Mike Jackson, Laura Renshaw, Richard Vallis, Geoffrey Watson, Andrew Wood, Richard |
spellingShingle |
Baker, Jonathan Bell, Mike Jackson, Laura Renshaw, Richard Vallis, Geoffrey Watson, Andrew Wood, Richard Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... |
author_facet |
Baker, Jonathan Bell, Mike Jackson, Laura Renshaw, Richard Vallis, Geoffrey Watson, Andrew Wood, Richard |
author_sort |
Baker, Jonathan |
title |
Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... |
title_short |
Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... |
title_full |
Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... |
title_fullStr |
Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models ... |
title_sort |
overturning pathways control amoc weakening in cmip6 models ... |
publisher |
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-1606 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017998 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Deep Water North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-1606 |
_version_ |
1772184754156732416 |