Influence of Arctic Sea ice concentration on extended-range prediction of strong and Long-lasting ural blocking events in Winter ...

• Main Authors: Mu, Mu, Dai, Guokun, Ma, Xueying
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences 2023
• Subjects: Arctic; Barents Sea; Greenland; Okhotsk; Greenland Sea; okhotsk sea; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-0708; https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5016779

<!--!introduction!--> It is traditionally considered that the predictability of atmosphere reaches approximately 2 weeks due to its chaotic features. Considering boundary conditions, the lead prediction time can exceed 2 weeks in certain cases. We find that the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is crucial for extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting Ural blocking (UB) formation. By applying the rotated empirical orthogonal function-based particle swarm optimization algorithm, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation is calculated with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, to identify the optimally growing boundary errors in extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting UB formation. It is found that SIC perturbations in the Greenland Sea (GS), Barents Sea (BS), and Okhotsk Sea (OKS) are important for strong and long-lasting UB formation prediction in four pentads. Further analysis reveals that the SIC perturbations in these areas first influence the local temperature ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ...