Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators
AbstractArctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in...
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ftdatacite:10.5683/sp3/s7j0tx 2023-05-15T14:30:27+02:00 Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.5683/sp3/s7j0tx https://dataverse.scholarsportal.info/citation?persistentId=doi:10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX unknown Scholars Portal Dataverse dataset Dataset 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.5683/sp3/s7j0tx 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z AbstractArctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators. Dataset Arctic cod Arctic Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic Hudson Bay Hudson |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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AbstractArctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie |
spellingShingle |
Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
author_facet |
Florko, Katie Tai, Travis Cheung, William Ferguson, Steve Sumaila, U. Rashid Yurkowski, David Auger-Méthé, Marie |
author_sort |
Florko, Katie |
title |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_short |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_full |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_fullStr |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators |
title_sort |
predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of arctic marine predators |
publisher |
Scholars Portal Dataverse |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5683/sp3/s7j0tx https://dataverse.scholarsportal.info/citation?persistentId=doi:10.5683/SP3/S7J0TX |
geographic |
Arctic Hudson Bay Hudson |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Hudson Bay Hudson |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Boreogadus saida Climate change Hudson Bay Pusa hispida ringed seal Sea ice |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5683/sp3/s7j0tx |
_version_ |
1766304290908930048 |