Climate Time Series: Statistical Modeling and Dynamics

• Main Author: Imkeller, Peter
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: German
• Published: FernUniversität in Hagen 2012
• Subjects: Mathematics; FOS Mathematics; Greenland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5446/18551; https://av.tib.eu/media/18551

Simple models of the earth’s energy balance are instrumental for interpreting some qualitative aspects of the dynamics of paleo-climatic data. In the 1980s this led to the investigation of periodically forced dynamical systems of the reaction-diffusion type with small Gaussian noise, and a rough explanation of glacial cycles by Gaussian metastability. A spectral analysis of Greenland ice time series performed at the end of the 1990s representing average temperatures during the last ice age suggest an α -stable noise component with an α ∼ 1 : 75. Based on this observation, papers in the physics literature attempted an interpretation featuring dynamical systems perturbed by small Lévy noise.